luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Vikings at Giants, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 16–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.6 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 37 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 16
New York Giants 13

December 21, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +50 Vikings lucky · −50 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 15 NYG 0
  2. 2 MIN 17 NYG 7
  3. 3 MIN 24 NYG 17
  4. 4 MIN 10 NYG 7
  5. 5 MIN 14 NYG 13
  6. 6 MIN 10 NYG 13
  7. 7 MIN 10 NYG 15
  8. 8 MIN 13 NYG 20
  9. 9 MIN 6 NYG 17
  10. 10 MIN 10 NYG 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 50% of them, Giants 50%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+5.1%
Vikings by 9–1613.9%
Vikings by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation8.9%
Giants by 1–826.7%
Giants by 9–1613.3%
Giants by 17+5.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 5.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Sauls, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Sauls, 39 yds made · 84% expected
  • W. Reichard, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:46 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NYG MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 5:51 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 720 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +15% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 3:45 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% MIN NYG: Punt
4 Q2 0:25 The Vikings fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +37% NYG MIN: End of half
5 Q3 1:59 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Eric Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4954 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +20% NYG NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 9:44 The Vikings converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 2:05 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +21% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (MIN DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Metellus (MIN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 70% · Giants 30%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 50% · Giants 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Vikings · Giants

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