luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:49 left): the Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 32 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Carolina Panthers 23

December 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +30 Panthers lucky · −30 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Panthers win 7.

  1. 1 TB 28 CAR 14
  2. 2 TB 17 CAR 10
  3. 3 TB 23 CAR 21
  4. 4 TB 13 CAR 15
  5. 5 TB 10 CAR 13
  6. 6 TB 13 CAR 20
  7. 7 TB 17 CAR 27
  8. 8 TB 10 CAR 23
  9. 9 TB 7 CAR 24
  10. 10 TB 7 CAR 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 30% of them, Panthers 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+2.3%
Buccaneers by 9–166.5%
Buccaneers by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation4.9%
Panthers by 1–828.1%
Panthers by 9–1623.1%
Panthers by 17+18.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Panthers by 3, without the luck Panthers by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 8 for 56 yards, Panthers 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:34 False Start on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts
Q2 14:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 5 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 12:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards +8% TB +3.4 pts
Q2 6:40 Illegal Blindside Block on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 1:20 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.4 pts
Q3 6:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 0 yards +1% TB +0.2 pts
Q3 6:41 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CAR +0.6 pts
Q4 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 6 yards, wiping out the play +12% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 5:02 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 4:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +9% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 2:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (John Bullock), 10 yards +6% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 0:49 False Start on the Buccaneers (Emeka Egbuka), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CAR +0.6 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 13:33 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:20 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% CAR TB: Field goal
3 Q4 11:29 C. McLaughlin made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 63 of 81 from 45+ before +9% TB TB: Punt
4 Q4 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q4 4:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q4 2:24 R. Fitzgerald made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +13% CAR CAR: End of game
7 Q4 1:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q4 0:49 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Buccaneers (Emeka Egbuka), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 772 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +32% CAR TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Zyon McCollum (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 24% · Panthers 76%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 30% · Panthers 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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