luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Raiders at Texans, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Raiders 23–21, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.5 points to the Texans.

The Texans won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Texans were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:53 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 36 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 21
Houston Texans 23

December 21, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −14.5

Luck index +61 Texans very lucky · −61 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 LV 26 HOU 3
  2. 2 LV 33 HOU 17
  3. 3 LV 21 HOU 10
  4. 4 LV 27 HOU 19
  5. 5 LV 29 HOU 24
  6. 6 LV 26 HOU 24
  7. 7 LV 10 HOU 12
  8. 8 LV 10 HOU 15
  9. 9 LV 16 HOU 26
  10. 10 LV 0 HOU 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Texans won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%.

43 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 −0.04 better by 0.15
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.12 better by 0.28
Texans offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.05 worse by 0.21
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.02 worse by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 61% of them, Texans 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+13.0%
Raiders by 9–1618.3%
Raiders by 1–827.8%
Level after regulation3.2%
Texans by 1–820.9%
Texans by 9–1611.9%
Texans by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 49 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 10:53 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +36% HOU LV: Punt
3 Q2 12:30 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:43 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% LV LV: Punt
5 Q3 9:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +21% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:19 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU HOU: End of game
7 Q4 4:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 572 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% HOU HOU: End of game
8 Q4 2:37 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Woody Marks (HOU RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyu Blu Kelly (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 79% · Texans 21%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
7.2 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 61% · Texans 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Raiders · Texans

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