luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Raiders at Texans, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Raiders 23–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:53 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 21
Houston Texans 23

December 21, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −14.5

Luck index +47 Texans lucky · −47 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 LV 20 HOU 3
  2. 2 LV 31 HOU 20
  3. 3 LV 27 HOU 19
  4. 4 LV 21 HOU 16
  5. 5 LV 14 HOU 13
  6. 6 LV 21 HOU 23
  7. 7 LV 20 HOU 26
  8. 8 LV 13 HOU 23
  9. 9 LV 3 HOU 17
  10. 10 LV 10 HOU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 47% of them, Texans 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+8.3%
Raiders by 9–1614.3%
Raiders by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Texans by 1–822.9%
Texans by 9–1616.2%
Texans by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 2, without the luck Raiders by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds made · 69% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 49 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 9 for 85 yards, Texans 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 7:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Charles Snowden), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 5:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 4 yards +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 3:38 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 3:25 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Ja'Marcus Ingram), 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 4:43 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 14:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans, 10 yards +4% LV +1.3 pts
Q3 9:44 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 13:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q4 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 23 yards +6% HOU +1.5 pts
Q4 7:44 Encroachment on the Raiders (Thomas Booker), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.2 pts
Q4 4:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 21 yards +11% HOU +2.7 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 10:53 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +20% HOU LV: Punt
3 Q2 12:30 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:43 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% LV LV: Punt
5 Q3 9:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:19 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU HOU: End of game
7 Q4 4:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 572 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% HOU HOU: End of game
8 Q4 2:37 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Woody Marks (HOU RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyu Blu Kelly (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 80% · Texans 20%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
6.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 47% · Texans 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Raiders · Texans

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