luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 22, 2025

49ers at Colts, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Colts 48–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:19 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 16, worth 14 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 48
Indianapolis Colts 27

December 22, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −4.5

Luck index +4 49ers about even · −4 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Colts win 0.

  1. 1 SF 41 IND 7
  2. 2 SF 45 IND 17
  3. 3 SF 31 IND 9
  4. 4 SF 38 IND 20
  5. 5 SF 31 IND 17
  6. 6 SF 39 IND 27
  7. 7 SF 31 IND 21
  8. 8 SF 35 IND 27
  9. 9 SF 23 IND 17
  10. 10 SF 22 IND 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 96% of them, Colts 4%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+63.9%
49ers by 9–1622.9%
49ers by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation0.3%
Colts by 1–82.9%
Colts by 9–160.7%
Colts by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 20.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 64 yds missed · 61% expected
  • B. Grupe, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:45 The Colts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:14 The Colts fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SF IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:19 The Colts converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +14% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:24 K. Bourne dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 148 catchable balls before this +5% IND SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:00 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedG. Kittle dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 298 catchable balls before this +6% IND SF: Field goal
7 Q2 0:03 E. Pineiro missed 64-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 38 of 45 from 45+ before +9% IND SF: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:09 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (IND QB), out (IR), replaced by p.rivers · 2.2 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sauce Gardner (IND CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Renardo Green (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Colts 0%

Final margin
49ers by 21
Luck in points
0.3 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 96% · Colts 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · 49ers · Colts

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