2025 season · final
San Francisco 49ers, 2025: game by game
The 49ers went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–1.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | W 17–13 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 2 | @ Saints | W 26–21 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 3 | vs Cardinals | W 16–15 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | L 21–26 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 26–23 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 6 | @ Buccaneers | L 19–30 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | W 20–10 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | L 15–26 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 9 | @ Giants | W 34–24 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 10 | vs Rams | L 26–42 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 11 | @ Cardinals | W 41–22 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 20–9 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 13 | @ Browns | W 26–8 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 15 | vs Titans | W 37–24 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 16 | @ Colts | W 48–27 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | vs Bears | W 42–38 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 18 | vs Seahawks | L 3–13 | 45% | −45 |
| Wild Card | @ Eagles | W 23–19 | 93% | +7 |
| Divisional round | @ Seahawks | L 6–41 | 8% | −8 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.59 | +4.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.54 | +12.7 |
| Kicks | +0.27 | +35.3 |
| Drops | +0.22 | −0.6 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.20 | +6.4 |
| Injuries | −1.26 | −45.0 |