luckadjusted

Wild Card 2025 · January 11, 2026

49ers at Eagles, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Eagles 23–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:21 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 5, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 23
Philadelphia Eagles 19

January 11, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +7 49ers about even · −7 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 SF 34 PHI 0
  2. 2 SF 37 PHI 10
  3. 3 SF 33 PHI 12
  4. 4 SF 31 PHI 13
  5. 5 SF 34 PHI 20
  6. 6 SF 21 PHI 10
  7. 7 SF 30 PHI 22
  8. 8 SF 22 PHI 16
  9. 9 SF 27 PHI 24
  10. 10 SF 22 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

58 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
49ers offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.18 better by 0.09
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.12 better by 0.17
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.11 worse by 0.15
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.02 worse by 0.25

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 93% of them, Eagles 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+55.7%
49ers by 9–1620.4%
49ers by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation1.3%
Eagles by 1–84.6%
Eagles by 9–161.3%
Eagles by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:33 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% SF PHI: Touchdown
2 Q4 14:52 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 315 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +9% SF SF: Turnover
3 Q4 13:25 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% SF SF: Turnover
4 Q4 11:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Marques Sigle), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 597 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +11% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 2:59 The 49ers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +14% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:25 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedA. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 413 catchable balls before this +17% SF PHI: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:21 The Eagles converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +18% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:48 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% SF PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dee Winters (SF LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 24% · Eagles 76%

Final margin
49ers by 4
Luck in points
7.0 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
49ers 93% · Eagles 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · 49ers · Eagles

More from Wild Card 2025