luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · January 10, 2026–January 12

Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win

No winner of Wild Card was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Bears won 31–27 and take 48% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Wild Card 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
49ers 23–19 @ Eagles 33% 93% Deserved
Bears 31–27 vs Packers 43% 48% Coin flip
Bills 27–24 @ Jaguars 46% 60% Coin flip

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 31–27 vs Packers 48% +52
2 Rams W 34–31 @ Panthers 55% +45
3 Bills W 27–24 @ Jaguars 60% +40
4 Texans W 30–6 @ Steelers 77% +23
5 Patriots W 16–3 vs Chargers 92% +8
6 49ers W 23–19 @ Eagles 93% +7
7 Eagles L 19–23 vs 49ers 7% −7
8 Chargers L 3–16 @ Patriots 8% −8
9 Steelers L 6–30 vs Texans 23% −23
10 Jaguars L 24–27 vs Bills 40% −40
11 Panthers L 31–34 vs Rams 45% −45
12 Packers L 27–31 @ Bears 52% −52