Rams 34 
Panthers 31 Coin flip · Rams win 54% of replays 2025 NFL season · January 10, 2026–January 12
Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win
2 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bills beat the Jaguars 27–24 in a game they win 44% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Rams 34 Panthers 31 Coin flip · Rams win 54% of replays 
Packers 27 
Bears 31 Coin flip · Bears win 47% of replays 
Bills 27 
Jaguars 24 Coin flip · Bills win 44% of replays 
49ers 23 
Eagles 19 Deserved · 49ers win 93% of replays Off day for the Eagles 65% to win a fresh game, 7% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Chargers 3 
Patriots 16 Deserved · Patriots win 96% of replays 
Texans 30 
Steelers 6 Deserved · Texans win 74% of replays Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | W 27–24 @ Jaguars | 44% | +56 |
| 2 | Bears | W 31–27 vs Packers | 47% | +53 |
| 3 | Rams | W 34–31 @ Panthers | 54% | +46 |
| 4 | Texans | W 30–6 @ Steelers | 74% | +26 |
| 5 | 49ers | W 23–19 @ Eagles | 93% | +7 |
| 6 | Patriots | W 16–3 vs Chargers | 96% | +4 |
| 7 | Chargers | L 3–16 @ Patriots | 4% | −4 |
| 8 | Eagles | L 19–23 vs 49ers | 7% | −7 |
| 9 | Steelers | L 6–30 vs Texans | 26% | −26 |
| 10 | Panthers | L 31–34 vs Rams | 46% | −46 |
| 11 | Packers | L 27–31 @ Bears | 53% | −53 |
| 12 | Jaguars | L 24–27 vs Bills | 56% | −56 |