luckadjusted

Wild Card 2025 · January 10, 2026

Packers at Bears, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Packers 31–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9.0 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:08 left): R. Doubs dropped a catchable pass, worth 29 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Green Bay Packers 27
Chicago Bears 31

January 10, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +53 Bears lucky · −53 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 GB 35 CHI 14
  2. 2 GB 41 CHI 27
  3. 3 GB 27 CHI 17
  4. 4 GB 34 CHI 28
  5. 5 GB 27 CHI 24
  6. 6 GB 7 CHI 9
  7. 7 GB 16 CHI 21
  8. 8 GB 14 CHI 23
  9. 9 GB 13 CHI 27
  10. 10 GB 6 CHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 53% of them, Bears 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+11.1%
Packers by 9–1614.9%
Packers by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation5.6%
Bears by 1–821.7%
Bears by 9–1613.9%
Bears by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 11.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 60% expected
  • C. Santos, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds missed · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +13% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 The Bears converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +11% CHI CHI: Turnover
3 Q4 2:56 B. McManus missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +17% CHI GB: End of game
4 Q4 1:54 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:08 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 263 catchable balls before this +29% CHI GB: End of game
6 Q4 1:05 The Packers converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% GB GB: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 J. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 165 catchable balls before this +26% CHI GB: End of game
8 Q4 0:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% GB GB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Gardner-Johnson (CHI DB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • John FitzPatrick (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 92% · Bears 8%

Final margin
Bears by 4
Luck in points
15.6 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 53% · Bears 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Packers · Bears

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