luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2025 · January 10, 2026

Rams at Panthers, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Panthers 34–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rams win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:18 left): Blocked punt by the Panthers, worth 20 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 34
Carolina Panthers 31

January 10, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Rams −10

Luck index +45 Rams lucky · −45 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 LA 41 CAR 16
  2. 2 LA 39 CAR 23
  3. 3 LA 27 CAR 16
  4. 4 LA 40 CAR 34
  5. 5 LA 27 CAR 24
  6. 6 LA 17 CAR 19
  7. 7 LA 15 CAR 20
  8. 8 LA 17 CAR 26
  9. 9 LA 24 CAR 38
  10. 10 LA 10 CAR 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 55% of them, Panthers 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+13.9%
Rams by 9–1615.6%
Rams by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation5.5%
Panthers by 1–820.5%
Panthers by 9–1613.1%
Panthers by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 3, without the luck Panthers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • H. Mevis, 42 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 9 for 83 yards, Panthers 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 15 yards +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q2 9:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Cobie Durant), 2 yards +2% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 8:12 False Start on the Rams (Davante Adams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 7:52 Offensive Offside on the Rams (Xavier Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 1:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CAR +2.0 pts
Q2 1:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 28 yards +3% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 0:37 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Panthers (Ryan Fitzgerald), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LA 0.0 pts
Q3 11:06 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Braden Fiske), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 5:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 15 yards +12% LA +2.3 pts
Q3 4:17 Taunting on the Rams (Desjuan Johnson), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Nathan Landman), 3 yards +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 8:47 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +1.6 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:44 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:22 P. Nacua dropped a catchable passDrops · 15 drops on 368 catchable balls before this +9% CAR LA: Punt
3 Q3 13:09 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 5:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 5503 snaps before, position avg 1 per 518 +12% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q3 2:53 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +11% LA CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:18 Blocked punt by the PanthersSpecial teams +20% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:12 Ji.Horn dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 12 catchable balls before this +13% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chandler Zavala (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (LA OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Wallace (LA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 43% · Panthers 57%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Rams 55% · Panthers 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Rams · Panthers

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