luckadjusted

Wild Card 2025 · January 10, 2026

Rams at Panthers, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Panthers 34–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 1.9 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:18 left): Blocked punt by the Panthers, worth 20 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 34
Carolina Panthers 31

January 10, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Rams −10

Luck index +46 Rams lucky · −46 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 LA 39 CAR 13
  2. 2 LA 35 CAR 19
  3. 3 LA 44 CAR 34
  4. 4 LA 29 CAR 23
  5. 5 LA 20 CAR 18
  6. 6 LA 24 CAR 26
  7. 7 LA 21 CAR 27
  8. 8 LA 13 CAR 23
  9. 9 LA 31 CAR 47
  10. 10 LA 6 CAR 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 54% of them, Panthers 46%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+14.8%
Rams by 9–1614.4%
Rams by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation4.2%
Panthers by 1–820.8%
Panthers by 9–1612.8%
Panthers by 17+12.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • H. Mevis, 42 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:44 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q3 6:39 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q3 5:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 5503 snaps before, position avg 1 per 518 +12% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q3 2:53 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% LA CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:51 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:18 Blocked punt by the PanthersSpecial teams +20% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:43 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +12% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:12 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedJi.Horn dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 12 catchable balls before this +9% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chandler Zavala (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (LA OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Wallace (LA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 76% · Panthers 24%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
3.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 54% · Panthers 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Rams · Panthers

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