luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2025 · January 12, 2026

Texans at Steelers, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Steelers 30–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:34 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 31 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 30
Pittsburgh Steelers 6

January 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +23 Texans about even · −23 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 34 PIT 10
  2. 2 HOU 20 PIT 3
  3. 3 HOU 17 PIT 3
  4. 4 HOU 22 PIT 11
  5. 5 HOU 19 PIT 10
  6. 6 HOU 20 PIT 13
  7. 7 HOU 17 PIT 13
  8. 8 HOU 9 PIT 7
  9. 9 HOU 17 PIT 20
  10. 10 HOU 15 PIT 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 77% of them, Steelers 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+22.8%
Texans by 9–1624.6%
Texans by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation4.3%
Steelers by 1–814.2%
Steelers by 9–166.2%
Steelers by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 24, without the luck Texans by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 6 for 44 yards, Steelers 3 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:04 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q1 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 14 yards +5% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 7:48 Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Aaron Rodgers), 11 yards +4% HOU +1.0 pts
Q3 9:04 False Start on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 4:56 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +5% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 3:49 Face Mask on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 8 yards 0% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 3:43 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 2:39 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:10 The Texans fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:20 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q2 4:04 The Steelers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q3 7:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q3 1:25 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q3 0:44 The Texans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 13:12 K. Fairbairn made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 60 of 83 from 45+ before +11% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 11:34 The Steelers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +31% HOU PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Darnell Washington (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 97% · Steelers 3%

Final margin
Texans by 24
Luck in points
12.2 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 77% · Steelers 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Texans · Steelers

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