2025 season · final
Chicago Bears, 2025: game by game
The Bears went 11–6 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.7 wins. Luck added 3.3: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Vikings | L 24–27 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 2 | @ Lions | L 21–52 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Cowboys | W 31–14 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 4 | @ Raiders | W 25–24 | 18% | +82 |
| Week 6 | @ Commanders | W 25–24 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 7 | vs Saints | W 26–14 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 8 | @ Ravens | L 16–30 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 9 | @ Bengals | W 47–42 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 10 | vs Giants | W 24–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 11 | @ Vikings | W 19–17 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | W 31–28 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 13 | @ Eagles | W 24–15 | 87% | +14 |
| Week 14 | @ Packers | L 21–28 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 15 | vs Browns | W 31–3 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | vs Packers | W 22–16 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 17 | @ 49ers | L 38–42 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 18 | vs Lions | L 16–19 | 18% | −18 |
| Wild Card | vs Packers | W 31–27 | 47% | +53 |
| Divisional round | vs Rams | L 17–20 | 66% | −66 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +22.0 | +1.30 |
| Injuries | +16.3 | +0.96 |
| Kicks | +11.3 | +0.67 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +5.9 | +0.35 |
| Rest | −0.8 | −0.05 |
| Drops | −17.8 | −1.05 |
| Judgment calls | −24.3 | −1.43 |