luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Bears at Lions, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bears 52–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:38 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 21
Detroit Lions 52

September 14, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6

Luck index 0 Lions about even · 0 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Lions win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 27 DET 34
  2. 2 CHI 16 DET 30
  3. 3 CHI 10 DET 29
  4. 4 CHI 16 DET 38
  5. 5 CHI 23 DET 50
  6. 6 CHI 10 DET 41
  7. 7 CHI 16 DET 50
  8. 8 CHI 3 DET 41
  9. 9 CHI 6 DET 50
  10. 10 CHI 13 DET 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 0% of them, Lions 100%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.0%
Bears by 9–160.0%
Bears by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Lions by 1–80.9%
Lions by 9–163.5%
Lions by 17+95.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 33.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Bates, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:43 K. Monangai dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +5% DET CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:06 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% CHI DET: Punt
4 Q1 0:38 The Bears fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DET CHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:19 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% DET CHI: Turnover
6 Q2 12:02 J. Bates missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before +6% CHI DET: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:14 Face Mask on the Bears, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CHI DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 31
Luck in points
2.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 33.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 0% · Lions 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Bears · Lions

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