luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Seahawks at Steelers, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.8 points to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:41 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 30 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

September 14, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +13 Seahawks about even · −13 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 50 PIT 17
  2. 2 SEA 27 PIT 3
  3. 3 SEA 40 PIT 19
  4. 4 SEA 37 PIT 20
  5. 5 SEA 30 PIT 16
  6. 6 SEA 17 PIT 7
  7. 7 SEA 36 PIT 29
  8. 8 SEA 34 PIT 30
  9. 9 SEA 29 PIT 27
  10. 10 SEA 20 PIT 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

41 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.07 better by 0.22
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.09 better by 0.17
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.07 worse by 0.15
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.12 worse by 0.17

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 87% of them, Steelers 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+42.9%
Seahawks by 9–1623.4%
Seahawks by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Steelers by 1–88.9%
Steelers by 9–162.9%
Steelers by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds missed · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:09 J. Myers missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +12% PIT SEA: Punt
4 Q2 3:41 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +30% PIT SEA: Punt
5 Q3 4:17 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% SEA PIT: Punt
6 Q4 12:52 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% PIT SEA: Field goal
7 Q4 12:51 J. Myers made 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 46 of 63 from 45+ before +10% SEA SEA: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 9:27 K. Gainwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 88 catchable balls before this +7% SEA PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Steelers 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 14
Luck in points
2.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 87% · Steelers 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Seahawks · Steelers

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