Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025
Seahawks at Steelers, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Steelers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:09 left): J. Myers missed a 36-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 31 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Seahawks about even · −11 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Steelers win 1.
- 1 SEA 40 PIT 7
- 2 SEA 38 PIT 13
- 3 SEA 37 PIT 16
- 4 SEA 24 PIT 7
- 5 SEA 18 PIT 6
- 6 SEA 30 PIT 20
- 7 SEA 27 PIT 21
- 8 SEA 24 PIT 20
- 9 SEA 12 PIT 10
- 10 SEA 19 PIT 26
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.07 | better by 0.22 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.09 | better by 0.17 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.07 | worse by 0.15 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.12 | worse by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 89% of them, Steelers 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 48.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 22.5% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 83% expected
- J. Myers, 36 yds missed · 93% expected
- J. Myers, 54 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 2 for 10 yards, Steelers 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:21 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards | +4% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:14 | Offensive Offside on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:37 | Illegal Motion on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Aaron Rodgers), 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% PIT +0.9 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:39 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:16 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:56 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +5% SEA | PIT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:09 | J. Myers missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +12% PIT | SEA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 3:41 | The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +6% PIT | SEA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:32 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% PIT | SEA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:52 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% PIT | SEA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 12:51 | J. Myers made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 46 of 63 from 45+ before | +10% SEA | SEA: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 0.7 pts
- DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 100% · Steelers 0%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 17.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 89% · Steelers 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Seahawks · 
Steelers
More from Week 2 2025
- Commanders at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 52–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 31–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 44% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 40–37 · replay 12% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals ARI 27–22 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 29–28 · replay 64% for the winner
- Eagles at Chiefs PHI 20–17 · replay 10% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 22–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Texans TB 20–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 · replay 76% for the winner