luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jaguars 31–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 3:47 left): B. Thomas dropped a catchable pass, worth 25 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cincinnati Bengals 31

September 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +35 Bengals lucky · −35 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Bengals win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 34 CIN 16
  2. 2 JAX 24 CIN 16
  3. 3 JAX 24 CIN 21
  4. 4 JAX 24 CIN 26
  5. 5 JAX 14 CIN 18
  6. 6 JAX 15 CIN 23
  7. 7 JAX 19 CIN 31
  8. 8 JAX 24 CIN 40
  9. 9 JAX 13 CIN 34
  10. 10 JAX 6 CIN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 35% of them, Bengals 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.1%
Jaguars by 9–169.5%
Jaguars by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Bengals by 1–824.4%
Bengals by 9–1619.0%
Bengals by 17+19.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 4, without the luck Jaguars by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Little, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 55 yards, Bengals 3 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:49 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.3 pts
Q2 9:10 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 1:47 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 6:32 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q3 4:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.1 pts
Q4 13:40 Face Mask on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.8 pts
Q4 1:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yards +19% CIN +3.2 pts
Q4 0:57 Offensive Offside on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap +5% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 0:01 Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 0 yards · pre-snap +11% CIN +0.4 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:10 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:10 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% CIN JAX: Field goal
3 Q3 1:54 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q4 3:47 The game turned hereB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 107 catchable balls before this +25% CIN JAX: End of game
5 Q4 2:45 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 48 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +19% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:19 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:01 Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1303 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +11% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 86% · Bengals 14%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
8.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 35% · Bengals 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Jaguars · Bengals

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