luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jaguars 31–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 1, worth 33 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cincinnati Bengals 31

September 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +31 Bengals lucky · −31 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Bengals win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 37 CIN 20
  2. 2 JAX 23 CIN 16
  3. 3 JAX 26 CIN 24
  4. 4 JAX 19 CIN 21
  5. 5 JAX 27 CIN 31
  6. 6 JAX 23 CIN 30
  7. 7 JAX 14 CIN 25
  8. 8 JAX 27 CIN 41
  9. 9 JAX 6 CIN 25
  10. 10 JAX 24 CIN 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 31% of them, Bengals 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+4.1%
Jaguars by 9–168.9%
Jaguars by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Bengals by 1–823.9%
Bengals by 9–1621.6%
Bengals by 17+22.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 4.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Little, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:57 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% CIN JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:10 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% CIN JAX: Field goal
3 Q2 2:40 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q3 7:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% JAX CIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +23% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:47 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 107 catchable balls before this +22% CIN JAX: End of game
7 Q4 1:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 48 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +19% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:19 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +33% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 78% · Bengals 22%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
8.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 31% · Bengals 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Jaguars · Bengals

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