luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Rams at Titans, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Titans 33–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:52 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 33
Tennessee Titans 19

September 14, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 LA 38 TEN 6
  2. 2 LA 38 TEN 13
  3. 3 LA 27 TEN 6
  4. 4 LA 34 TEN 17
  5. 5 LA 24 TEN 10
  6. 6 LA 18 TEN 6
  7. 7 LA 19 TEN 10
  8. 8 LA 22 TEN 16
  9. 9 LA 24 TEN 22
  10. 10 LA 10 TEN 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 91% of them, Titans 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+52.4%
Rams by 9–1620.5%
Rams by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Titans by 1–85.7%
Titans by 9–161.8%
Titans by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 14, without the luck Rams by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Karty, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Karty, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 29 yards, Titans 10 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:21 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q1 14:01 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.9 pts
Q1 11:24 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Dre'Mont Jones), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.3 pts
Q1 10:19 False Start on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 1:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 7:25 Offensive Holding on the Titans (James Williams), 10 yards +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 4:42 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 3:23 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 15 yards +5% LA +1.3 pts
Q2 0:38 Illegal Formation on the Titans (Jaylen Harrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Cobie Durant), 14 yards +6% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 9:34 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 6:54 Defensive Holding on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 1 yard 0% LA +0.3 pts
Q4 2:25 Horse Collar Tackle on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 7 yards 0% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 0:35 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +2.3 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:29 T. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 166 catchable balls before this +8% LA TEN: Field goal
2 Q2 4:42 C. Ridley dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 168 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% LA TEN: Punt
3 Q2 1:06 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:49 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:32 The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% TEN LA: Field goal
6 Q3 12:52 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q3 3:37 J. Slye made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 47 of 71 from 45+ before +9% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 11:15 The Titans fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LA TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 93% · Titans 7%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
6.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 91% · Titans 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Rams · Titans

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