luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Rams at Titans, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Titans 33–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.9 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:48 left): the Rams converted 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 33
Tennessee Titans 19

September 14, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +4 Rams about even · −4 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 LA 46 TEN 10
  2. 2 LA 27 TEN 0
  3. 3 LA 34 TEN 10
  4. 4 LA 33 TEN 13
  5. 5 LA 27 TEN 9
  6. 6 LA 25 TEN 10
  7. 7 LA 25 TEN 13
  8. 8 LA 27 TEN 17
  9. 9 LA 27 TEN 20
  10. 10 LA 20 TEN 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 96% of them, Titans 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+68.7%
Rams by 9–1618.5%
Rams by 1–88.4%
Level after regulation0.8%
Titans by 1–82.7%
Titans by 9–160.9%
Titans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 9.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Karty, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Karty, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 57 yds made · 60% expected
  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:48 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +20% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedT. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 166 catchable balls before this +9% LA TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 4:42 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedC. Ridley dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 168 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% LA TEN: Punt
4 Q2 1:06 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:49 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:52 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +14% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q3 3:37 J. Slye made 57-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 47 of 71 from 45+ before +10% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 9:44 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 96% · Titans 4%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
4.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 96% · Titans 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Rams · Titans

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