luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Eagles at Chiefs, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Chiefs 20–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:07 left): the Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 20
Kansas City Chiefs 17

September 14, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −1.5

Luck index +90 Eagles very lucky · −90 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 23 KC 17
  2. 2 PHI 24 KC 27
  3. 3 PHI 13 KC 17
  4. 4 PHI 21 KC 29
  5. 5 PHI 9 KC 20
  6. 6 PHI 6 KC 20
  7. 7 PHI 3 KC 19
  8. 8 PHI 14 KC 33
  9. 9 PHI 20 KC 44
  10. 10 PHI 10 KC 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

48 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.14 worse by 0.13
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.12 +0.05 better by 0.16
Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained −0.12 +0.13 worse by 0.25
Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.10 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 10% of them, Chiefs 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.4%
Eagles by 9–161.6%
Eagles by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation1.9%
Chiefs by 1–818.9%
Chiefs by 9–1622.8%
Chiefs by 17+48.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 58 yds missed · 62% expected
  • H. Butker, 56 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 6 for 48 yards, Chiefs 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:25 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q1 12:20 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PHI +2.1 pts
Q1 5:38 False Start on the Chiefs (Kareem Hunt), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 10:55 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +6% KC +1.8 pts
Q2 2:39 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 0:02 False Start on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% KC +0.1 pts
Q3 10:38 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 9 yards +4% KC +0.7 pts
Q3 8:00 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q4 12:56 Face Mask on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yards +7% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 3:55 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Jihaad Campbell), 15 yards +1% KC +1.9 pts
Q4 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +5% PHI +0.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:00 H. Butker missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 46 of 62 from 45+ before +13% PHI KC: Field goal
2 Q2 6:00 The Chiefs converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:33 J. Elliott made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 37 of 55 from 45+ before +9% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q4 14:18 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% KC KC: Turnover
5 Q4 13:07 The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +16% PHI KC: Punt
6 Q4 12:56 Face Mask on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3258 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:46 The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:42 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Worthy (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 40% · Chiefs 60%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
4.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 10% · Chiefs 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Eagles · Chiefs

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