Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025
Eagles at Chiefs, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Eagles stole one. They beat the Chiefs 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.5 points to the Eagles.
The Eagles won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:07 left): the Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 20 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +90 Eagles very lucky · −90 Chiefs
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Chiefs win 9.
- 1 PHI 14 KC 9
- 2 PHI 20 KC 21
- 3 PHI 8 KC 13
- 4 PHI 17 KC 24
- 5 PHI 3 KC 13
- 6 PHI 14 KC 26
- 7 PHI 22 KC 38
- 8 PHI 3 KC 22
- 9 PHI 14 KC 36
- 10 PHI 13 KC 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Eagles won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.14 | worse by 0.13 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.12 | +0.05 | better by 0.16 |
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | −0.12 | +0.13 | worse by 0.25 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.10 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 10% of them, Chiefs 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 27.2% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 42.8% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 0.6.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 58 yds missed · 59% expected
- H. Butker, 56 yds made · 62% expected
- J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 55% expected
- J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 67% expected
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:00 | H. Butker missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 46 of 62 from 45+ before | +12% PHI | KC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:30 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% PHI | KC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 6:00 | The Chiefs converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +13% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:33 | J. Elliott made 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 37 of 55 from 45+ before | +9% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:18 | The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% KC | KC: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 13:07 | The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +16% PHI | KC: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:46 | The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +8% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:42 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Xavier Worthy (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 44% · Chiefs 56%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 10% · Chiefs 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Eagles · 
Chiefs
More from Week 2 2025
- Commanders at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 52–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 31–27 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 40–37 · replay 16% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 31–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals ARI 27–22 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 29–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 22–6 · replay 87% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Texans TB 20–19 · replay 77% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 · replay 75% for the winner