Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025
Falcons at Vikings, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Vikings 22–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.
An off day for the Vikings: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 22 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Falcons about even · −7 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Vikings win 1.
- 1 ATL 42 MIN 10
- 2 ATL 38 MIN 13
- 3 ATL 36 MIN 16
- 4 ATL 30 MIN 13
- 5 ATL 31 MIN 17
- 6 ATL 36 MIN 24
- 7 ATL 15 MIN 6
- 8 ATL 16 MIN 10
- 9 ATL 20 MIN 17
- 10 ATL 10 MIN 16
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Vikings
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.14 | worse by 0.12 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.13 | better by 0.34 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.12 | worse by 0.32 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 93% of them, Vikings 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 56.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Romo, 38 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Romo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- W. Reichard, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Romo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- W. Reichard, 51 yds made · 73% expected
- J. Romo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Romo, 54 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Falcons 5 for 29 yards, Vikings 8 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:16 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:27 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:48 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Gabriel Murphy), 10 yards | +1% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:35 | Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.1 pts |
| Q1 2:00 | False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:32 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:42 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:21 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% ATL +2.5 pts |
| Q3 2:01 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:29 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +1% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:08 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jalen Redmond), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +2.4 pts |
| Q4 3:22 | Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Ben Yurosek), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.5 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:45 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 10:00 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:39 | The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:12 | The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% ATL | MIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 11:42 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:50 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +6% ATL | MIN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:21 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | The Vikings fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% ATL | MIN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.6 pts
- Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 99% · Vikings 1%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 16
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 93% · Vikings 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Falcons · 
Vikings
More from Week 2 2025
- Commanders at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 52–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 31–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 44% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 40–37 · replay 12% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 31–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals ARI 27–22 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 29–28 · replay 64% for the winner
- Eagles at Chiefs PHI 20–17 · replay 10% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Texans TB 20–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 · replay 76% for the winner