2025 season · final
Atlanta Falcons, 2025: game by game
The Falcons went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | L 20–23 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 2 | @ Vikings | W 22–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 3 | @ Panthers | L 0–30 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 4 | vs Commanders | W 34–27 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 6 | vs Bills | W 24–14 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 7 | @ 49ers | L 10–20 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 8 | vs Dolphins | L 10–34 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 9 | @ Patriots | L 23–24 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 10 | vs Colts | L 25–31 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 11 | vs Panthers | L 27–30 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 12 | @ Saints | W 24–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | L 24–27 | 91% | −91 |
| Week 14 | vs Seahawks | L 9–37 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 29–28 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 16 | @ Cardinals | W 26–19 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 17 | vs Rams | W 27–24 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 18 | vs Saints | W 19–17 | 29% | +71 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.57 | +3.0 |
| Injuries | +0.37 | +12.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.03 | +4.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.20 | −14.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.20 | −8.1 |
| Drops | −1.00 | +1.6 |