2025 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2025: game by game

The Falcons went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Buccaneers	L 20–23	35%	−35
Week 2	@ Vikings	W 22–6	87%	+13
Week 3	@ Panthers	L 0–30	50%	−50
Week 4	vs Commanders	W 34–27	77%	+23
Week 6	vs Bills	W 24–14	39%	+62
Week 7	@ 49ers	L 10–20	26%	−26
Week 8	vs Dolphins	L 10–34	21%	−21
Week 9	@ Patriots	L 23–24	15%	−15
Week 10	@ Colts	L 25–31	15%	−15
Week 11	vs Panthers	L 27–30	41%	−41
Week 12	@ Saints	W 24–10	94%	+6
Week 13	@ Jets	L 24–27	89%	−89
Week 14	vs Seahawks	L 9–37	21%	−21
Week 15	@ Buccaneers	W 29–28	20%	+80
Week 16	@ Cardinals	W 26–19	39%	+61
Week 17	vs Rams	W 27–24	36%	+64
Week 18	vs Saints	W 19–17	33%	+67

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −35 vs TB

Wk 2 +13 @ MIN

Wk 3 −50 @ CAR

Wk 4 +23 vs WAS

Wk 6 +62 vs BUF

Wk 7 −26 @ SF

Wk 8 −21 vs MIA

Wk 9 −15 @ NE

Wk 10 −15 @ IND

Wk 11 −41 vs CAR

Wk 12 +6 @ NO

Wk 13 −89 @ NYJ

Wk 14 −21 vs SEA

Wk 15 +80 @ TB

Wk 16 +61 @ ARI

Wk 17 +64 vs LA

Wk 18 +67 vs NO

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+17.1	+1.00
Judgment calls	+7.3	+0.43
Drops	+3.9	+0.23
Kicks	+3.0	+0.18
Rest	−0.2	−0.01
3rd & 4th downs	−9.1	−0.54
Fumble bounces	−11.0	−0.65