2024 season · final
Atlanta Falcons, 2024: game by game
The Falcons went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 10–18 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 2 | @ Eagles | W 22–21 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 3 | vs Chiefs | L 17–22 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 4 | vs Saints | W 26–24 | 31% | +70 |
| Week 5 | vs Buccaneers | W 36–30 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 6 | @ Panthers | W 38–20 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 7 | vs Seahawks | L 14–34 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 8 | @ Buccaneers | W 31–26 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 9 | vs Cowboys | W 27–21 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 10 | @ Saints | L 17–20 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 11 | @ Broncos | L 6–38 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 13 | vs Chargers | L 13–17 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 14 | @ Vikings | L 21–42 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 15 | @ Raiders | W 15–9 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | vs Giants | W 34–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 17 | @ Commanders | L 24–30 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 18 | vs Panthers | L 38–44 | 89% | −89 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.77 | +10.3 |
| Drops | +0.69 | +0.6 |
| Injuries | +0.51 | +19.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.11 | +1.4 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.16 | −3.4 |
| Kicks | −0.89 | −41.3 |