luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Falcons at Commanders, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Falcons 30–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: drops alone were worth 50 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:02 left): R. Patterson missed a 56-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Commanders. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:55 left): O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable pass.

Final (OT)

Atlanta Falcons 24
Washington Commanders 30

December 29, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3.5

Luck index +17 Commanders about even · −17 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Commanders win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 17 WAS 6
  2. 2 ATL 23 WAS 20
  3. 3 ATL 21 WAS 23
  4. 4 ATL 17 WAS 21
  5. 5 ATL 24 WAS 31
  6. 6 ATL 16 WAS 26
  7. 7 ATL 10 WAS 23
  8. 8 ATL 7 WAS 23
  9. 9 ATL 3 WAS 23
  10. 10 ATL 6 WAS 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 17% of them, Commanders 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.5%
Falcons by 9–164.5%
Falcons by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
Commanders by 1–826.2%
Commanders by 9–1623.1%
Commanders by 17+32.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Commanders by 6, without the luck Commanders by 14.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Patterson, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 25 yards, Commanders 13 for 108 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:53 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yards · pre-snap +9% ATL +2.5 pts
Q1 5:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 5 yards +5% ATL +2.3 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Falcons (Charlie Woerner), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 14:41 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 11:08 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% ATL +1.1 pts
Q2 6:20 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 10 yards +2% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 3:52 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Darrick Forrest), 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 14:54 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% ATL +1.2 pts
Q3 13:46 Illegal Contact on the Falcons (DeAngelo Malone), 5 yards +5% WAS +2.6 pts
Q3 12:45 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +2.1 pts
Q3 4:31 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 4:43 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% ATL +3.6 pts
Q4 4:08 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 13 yards +18% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 0:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% ATL +0.2 pts
OT 10:00 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ATL +0.5 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 2:15 The Commanders converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q4 4:43 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:34 The Falcons converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +21% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +18% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:55 O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 104 catchable balls before this +49% ATL WAS: Punt
6 Q4 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 4920 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 13 flags in 5440 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +24% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:02 The game turned hereR. Patterson missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 13 of 16 from 45+ before +33% WAS –
8 OT 7:34 The Commanders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 3% · Commanders 97%

Final margin
Commanders by 6
Luck in points
8.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 17% · Commanders 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Falcons · Commanders

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