luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2024 · December 25, 2024

Ravens at Texans, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Texans 31–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:17 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Houston Texans 2

December 25, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +1 Ravens about even · −1 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 59 HOU 21
  2. 2 BAL 42 HOU 12
  3. 3 BAL 36 HOU 10
  4. 4 BAL 47 HOU 24
  5. 5 BAL 40 HOU 20
  6. 6 BAL 34 HOU 17
  7. 7 BAL 31 HOU 17
  8. 8 BAL 31 HOU 20
  9. 9 BAL 49 HOU 41
  10. 10 BAL 16 HOU 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 99% of them, Texans 1%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+81.9%
Ravens by 9–1612.8%
Ravens by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Texans by 1–80.9%
Texans by 9–160.4%
Texans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 29, without the luck Ravens by 22.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Ravens 3 for 30 yards, Texans 5 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:58 Kick Catch Interference on the Texans, 15 yards +4% BAL +1.4 pts
Q2 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cade Stover), 9 yards +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 10:40 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.1 pts
Q2 7:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yards +9% HOU +2.6 pts
Q2 4:15 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +2.0 pts
Q3 9:24 Face Mask on the Texans (Christian Harris), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.8 pts
Q4 8:17 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 5:02 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:49 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 2:51 J. Tucker made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 60 of 84 from 45+ before +4% BAL BAL: Punt
3 Q1 1:58 Kick Catch Interference on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% BAL BAL: Punt
4 Q2 11:20 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% BAL HOU: Punt
5 Q2 7:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 36 flags in 5503 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:39 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% BAL HOU: Punt
7 Q2 4:15 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q2 1:26 N. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 202 catchable balls before this +4% BAL HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 29
Luck in points
6.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 22.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 99% · Texans 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Ravens · Texans

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