luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 25, 2024

Ravens at Texans, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Texans 31–2, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:17 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Houston Texans 2

December 25, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 44 HOU 6
  2. 2 BAL 45 HOU 16
  3. 3 BAL 37 HOU 13
  4. 4 BAL 42 HOU 20
  5. 5 BAL 37 HOU 17
  6. 6 BAL 27 HOU 10
  7. 7 BAL 23 HOU 9
  8. 8 BAL 27 HOU 17
  9. 9 BAL 24 HOU 16
  10. 10 BAL 24 HOU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 97% of them, Texans 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+73.1%
Ravens by 9–1616.9%
Ravens by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Texans by 1–81.6%
Texans by 9–160.4%
Texans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 29. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 21.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:49 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 2:51 J. Tucker made 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 60 of 84 from 45+ before +4% BAL BAL: Punt
3 Q2 11:20 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% BAL HOU: Punt
4 Q2 7:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 36 flags in 5503 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 5:42 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% BAL HOU: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:39 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% BAL HOU: Punt
7 Q2 4:15 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 14:16 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% BAL HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 29
Luck in points
7.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 21.2
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 97% · Texans 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Ravens · Texans

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