luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · December 25, 2024–December 30

Week 17 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Cardinals 13–9 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 17 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 45–33 vs Colts 29% 46% Coin flip
Jaguars 20–13 vs Titans 47% 72% Deserved
Vikings 27–25 vs Packers 47% 78% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 13–9 vs Cardinals 19% +81
2 Giants W 45–33 vs Colts 46% +54
3 Lions W 40–34 @ 49ers 54% +46
4 Jaguars W 20–13 vs Titans 72% +28
5 Vikings W 27–25 vs Packers 78% +22
6 Commanders W 30–24 vs Falcons 83% +17
7 Seahawks W 6–3 @ Bears 84% +16
8 Dolphins W 20–3 @ Browns 86% +14
9 Chiefs W 29–10 @ Steelers 90% +10
10 Bengals W 30–24 vs Broncos 96% +4
11 Bills W 40–14 vs Jets 96% +4
12 Chargers W 40–7 @ Patriots 96% +4
13 Raiders W 25–10 @ Saints 97% +3
14 Eagles W 41–7 vs Cowboys 98% +2
15 Ravens W 31–2 @ Texans 99% +1
16 Buccaneers W 48–14 vs Panthers 100% 0
17 Panthers L 14–48 @ Buccaneers 0% 0
18 Texans L 2–31 vs Ravens 1% −1
19 Cowboys L 7–41 @ Eagles 2% −2
20 Saints L 10–25 vs Raiders 3% −3
21 Patriots L 7–40 vs Chargers 4% −4
22 Jets L 14–40 @ Bills 4% −4
23 Broncos L 24–30 @ Bengals 4% −4
24 Steelers L 10–29 vs Chiefs 10% −10
25 Browns L 3–20 vs Dolphins 14% −14
26 Bears L 3–6 vs Seahawks 16% −16
27 Falcons L 24–30 @ Commanders 17% −17
28 Packers L 25–27 @ Vikings 22% −22
29 Titans L 13–20 @ Jaguars 28% −28
30 49ers L 34–40 vs Lions 46% −46
31 Colts L 33–45 @ Giants 54% −54
32 Cardinals L 9–13 @ Rams 81% −81