luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · December 19, 2024–December 23

Week 16 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Cowboys beat the Buccaneers 26–24 in a game they win 37% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 16 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 36–30 vs Cardinals 34% 40% Coin flip
Cowboys 26–24 vs Buccaneers 37% 37% Lucky
Commanders 36–33 vs Eagles 38% 55% Coin flip
Dolphins 29–17 vs 49ers 44% 43% Coin flip

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cowboys W 26–24 vs Buccaneers 37% +63
2 Panthers W 36–30 vs Cardinals 40% +60
3 Dolphins W 29–17 vs 49ers 43% +57
4 Commanders W 36–33 vs Eagles 55% +45
5 Vikings W 27–24 @ Seahawks 61% +39
6 Bills W 24–21 vs Patriots 64% +36
7 Rams W 19–9 @ Jets 71% +29
8 Chargers W 34–27 vs Broncos 77% +23
9 Chiefs W 27–19 vs Texans 88% +12
10 Colts W 38–30 vs Titans 91% +9
11 Raiders W 19–14 vs Jaguars 91% +9
12 Ravens W 34–17 vs Steelers 94% +6
13 Lions W 34–17 @ Bears 98% +2
14 Packers W 34–0 vs Saints 99% +1
15 Bengals W 24–6 vs Browns 100% 0
16 Falcons W 34–7 vs Giants 100% 0
17 Giants L 7–34 @ Falcons 0% 0
18 Browns L 6–24 @ Bengals 0% 0
19 Saints L 0–34 @ Packers 1% −1
20 Bears L 17–34 vs Lions 2% −2
21 Steelers L 17–34 @ Ravens 6% −6
22 Jaguars L 14–19 @ Raiders 9% −9
23 Titans L 30–38 @ Colts 9% −9
24 Texans L 19–27 @ Chiefs 12% −12
25 Broncos L 27–34 @ Chargers 23% −23
26 Jets L 9–19 vs Rams 29% −29
27 Patriots L 21–24 @ Bills 36% −36
28 Seahawks L 24–27 vs Vikings 39% −39
29 Eagles L 33–36 @ Commanders 45% −45
30 49ers L 17–29 @ Dolphins 57% −57
31 Cardinals L 30–36 @ Panthers 60% −60
32 Buccaneers L 24–26 @ Cowboys 63% −63