luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Lions at Bears, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bears 34–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.7 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 34
Chicago Bears 17

December 22, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +2 Lions about even · −2 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Bears win 0.

  1. 1 DET 44 CHI 6
  2. 2 DET 38 CHI 7
  3. 3 DET 38 CHI 13
  4. 4 DET 41 CHI 19
  5. 5 DET 22 CHI 3
  6. 6 DET 31 CHI 16
  7. 7 DET 37 CHI 24
  8. 8 DET 17 CHI 7
  9. 9 DET 24 CHI 17
  10. 10 DET 16 CHI 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 98% of them, Bears 2%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+78.7%
Lions by 9–1613.3%
Lions by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation0.3%
Bears by 1–81.7%
Bears by 9–160.2%
Bears by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 17.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Bates, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Bates, 65 yds missed · 46% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:08 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% DET CHI: Punt
2 Q1 13:17 Taunting on the Lions (Jameson Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1319 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% CHI CHI: Turnover
3 Q1 8:31 The Bears fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DET CHI: Turnover
4 Q1 7:02 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:41 The Bears fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% DET CHI: Punt
6 Q1 0:06 J. Bates made 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +3% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:18 The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:09 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Bates (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Carlton Davis (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Bears 0%

Final margin
Lions by 17
Luck in points
0.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Lions 98% · Bears 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Lions · Bears

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