luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Cardinals at Panthers, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 36–30, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): C. Ryland made 58-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final (OT)

Arizona Cardinals 30
Carolina Panthers 36

December 22, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −5.5

Luck index +74 Panthers very lucky · −74 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 ARI 47 CAR 20
  2. 2 ARI 37 CAR 19
  3. 3 ARI 49 CAR 35
  4. 4 ARI 21 CAR 10
  5. 5 ARI 21 CAR 13
  6. 6 ARI 26 CAR 20
  7. 7 ARI 24 CAR 21
  8. 8 ARI 13 CAR 16
  9. 9 ARI 26 CAR 34
  10. 10 ARI 10 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 74% of them, Panthers 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+26.0%
Cardinals by 9–1621.2%
Cardinals by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation3.8%
Panthers by 1–814.4%
Panthers by 9–167.2%
Panthers by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 8.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds made · 64% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Ryland, 58 yds made · 47% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:44 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q4 4:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 6268 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% ARI ARI: Turnover
3 Q4 3:20 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CAR ARI: Field goal
4 Q4 2:22 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q4 0:02 C. Ryland made 58-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 9 of 18 from 45+ before +24% ARI ARI: Punt
6 QOT 8:38 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +20% ARI CAR: Punt
7 QOT 6:48 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +16% ARI ARI: Punt
8 QOT 5:26 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedDelay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +21% CAR ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Legette (CAR WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 14% · Panthers 86%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
2.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 74% · Panthers 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Cardinals · Panthers

More from Week 16 2024