luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Cardinals at Panthers, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 36–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): C. Ryland made a 58-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final (OT)

Arizona Cardinals 30
Carolina Panthers 36

December 22, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −5.5

Luck index +60 Panthers lucky · −60 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 41 CAR 16
  2. 2 ARI 21 CAR 6
  3. 3 ARI 24 CAR 13
  4. 4 ARI 36 CAR 29
  5. 5 ARI 27 CAR 23
  6. 6 ARI 18 CAR 16
  7. 7 ARI 27 CAR 29
  8. 8 ARI 24 CAR 30
  9. 9 ARI 27 CAR 37
  10. 10 ARI 20 CAR 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 60% of them, Panthers 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+15.5%
Cardinals by 9–1616.4%
Cardinals by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation2.8%
Panthers by 1–820.4%
Panthers by 9–1612.2%
Panthers by 17+6.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Panthers by 6, without the luck Panthers by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds made · 63% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Ryland, 58 yds made · 50% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 11 for 82 yards, Panthers 9 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Panthers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q1 15:00 Offensive Offside on the Cardinals (Marvin Harrison Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% CAR +1.9 pts
Q1 13:05 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 10:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 20 yards +4% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 5:07 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Xavier Thomas), 4 yards +4% CAR +1.9 pts
Q1 5:07 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 4:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Krys Barnes), 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 2:58 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q1 2:01 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 0:26 False Start on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 9 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +1.9 pts
Q2 7:55 Hip Drop Tackle on the Panthers, 15 yards +2% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 0:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards +4% ARI +1.3 pts
Q4 7:06 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards +1% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 6:56 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ARI +1.7 pts
Q4 5:00 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.3 pts
Q4 4:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 14 yards +8% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 1:57 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.2 pts
OT 5:26 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.4 pts
OT 4:35 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Cardinals (Victor Dimukeje), 4 yards +2% CAR 0.0 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:03 C. Ryland made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +7% CAR ARI: Punt
2 Q4 4:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 6268 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% ARI ARI: Turnover
3 Q4 3:20 The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +7% CAR ARI: Field goal
4 Q4 2:22 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q4 0:02 C. Ryland made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 9 of 18 from 45+ before +22% ARI ARI: Punt
6 OT 8:38 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +19% ARI CAR: Punt
7 OT 6:48 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +16% ARI ARI: Punt
8 OT 5:26 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% CAR ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Legette (CAR WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 5% · Panthers 95%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
3.8 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 60% · Panthers 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Cardinals · Panthers

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