luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Buccaneers 26–24, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.8 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:02 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Dallas Cowboys 26

December 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4.5

Luck index +62 Cowboys very lucky · −62 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Cowboys win 4.

  1. 1 TB 24 DAL 0
  2. 2 TB 37 DAL 20
  3. 3 TB 45 DAL 34
  4. 4 TB 38 DAL 31
  5. 5 TB 10 DAL 6
  6. 6 TB 24 DAL 22
  7. 7 TB 24 DAL 26
  8. 8 TB 28 DAL 34
  9. 9 TB 16 DAL 27
  10. 10 TB 19 DAL 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 62% of them, Cowboys 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+17.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.2%
Buccaneers by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Cowboys by 1–818.8%
Cowboys by 9–1610.4%
Cowboys by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 2.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 58 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 49 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 58 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 53 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:20 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:02 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedS. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +16% DAL TB: Punt
3 Q1 2:53 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedJ. Ferguson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 161 catchable balls before this +6% TB DAL: Punt
5 Q2 2:33 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:12 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB TB: Punt
7 Q4 6:55 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q4 1:40 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.4 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Otton (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • K.J. Britt (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 73% · Cowboys 27%

Final margin
Cowboys by 2
Luck in points
0.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 62% · Cowboys 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Buccaneers · Cowboys

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