luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Buccaneers 26–24, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:02 left): S. Shepard dropped a catchable pass, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Dallas Cowboys 26

December 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4.5

Luck index +63 Cowboys very lucky · −63 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Cowboys win 4.

  1. 1 TB 48 DAL 20
  2. 2 TB 26 DAL 6
  3. 3 TB 32 DAL 17
  4. 4 TB 22 DAL 13
  5. 5 TB 20 DAL 15
  6. 6 TB 20 DAL 18
  7. 7 TB 14 DAL 16
  8. 8 TB 8 DAL 13
  9. 9 TB 13 DAL 24
  10. 10 TB 20 DAL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 63% of them, Cowboys 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+18.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.6%
Buccaneers by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Cowboys by 1–819.2%
Cowboys by 9–1610.1%
Cowboys by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 2, without the luck Cowboys by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 58 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 49 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 58 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 53 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 6 for 47 yards, Cowboys 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:20 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DAL +2.0 pts
Q1 1:12 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 14:55 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 10:09 Illegal Motion on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DAL +1.3 pts
Q3 8:23 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 13:45 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 11:47 Illegal Blindside Block on the Buccaneers, 3 yards +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 9:19 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers (J.J. Russell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 9 yards 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 4:57 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:10 B. Aubrey made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 31 of 33 from 45+ before +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:20 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:02 S. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +16% DAL TB: Punt
4 Q1 2:53 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% TB DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 12:12 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB TB: Punt
7 Q4 6:55 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q4 1:40 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.4 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Otton (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • K.J. Britt (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 76% · Cowboys 24%

Final margin
Cowboys by 2
Luck in points
1.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 63% · Cowboys 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Buccaneers · Cowboys

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