luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Eagles at Commanders, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Eagles 36–33, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:10 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 7, worth 19 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 33
Washington Commanders 36

December 22, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −4

Luck index +45 Commanders lucky · −45 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 35 WAS 13
  2. 2 PHI 27 WAS 13
  3. 3 PHI 33 WAS 24
  4. 4 PHI 41 WAS 35
  5. 5 PHI 22 WAS 20
  6. 6 PHI 28 WAS 30
  7. 7 PHI 17 WAS 23
  8. 8 PHI 13 WAS 24
  9. 9 PHI 16 WAS 32
  10. 10 PHI 13 WAS 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 45% of them, Commanders 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+11.1%
Eagles by 9–1614.2%
Eagles by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation4.8%
Commanders by 1–818.8%
Commanders by 9–1615.1%
Commanders by 17+16.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Commanders by 3, without the luck Commanders by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 56 yds missed · 58% expected
  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Elliott, 50 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 10 for 91 yards, Commanders 5 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Eagles (Braden Mann), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q1 12:48 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 9:55 Intentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q1 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 4:30 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q1 3:57 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 6 yards +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 0:17 Illegal Motion on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% PHI 0.0 pts
Q2 13:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.3 pts
Q2 12:27 False Start on the Eagles (C.J. Uzomah), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 38 yards +8% PHI +2.7 pts
Q3 13:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 23 yards +6% PHI +1.7 pts
Q3 11:31 Disqualification on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards +4% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 9:47 Face Mask on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 15 yards +3% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 6:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 7 yards +3% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 1:58 Illegal Formation on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.4 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:04 J. Elliott missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 31 of 47 from 45+ before +9% WAS PHI: Field goal
2 Q3 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 4404 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q3 0:19 The Commanders converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:10 The Eagles converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +19% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 3:53 J. Elliott made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 31 of 48 from 45+ before +14% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q4 3:06 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% PHI WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:02 J. Elliott made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +12% WAS PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 0:06 The Commanders’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 14% · Commanders 86%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
5.0 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 45% · Commanders 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Eagles · Commanders

More from Week 16 2024