luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Eagles at Commanders, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Eagles 36–33, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.9 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:06 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 33 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 33
Washington Commanders 36

December 22, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −4

Luck index +42 Commanders lucky · −42 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 40 WAS 17
  2. 2 PHI 40 WAS 27
  3. 3 PHI 34 WAS 27
  4. 4 PHI 34 WAS 31
  5. 5 PHI 27 WAS 29
  6. 6 PHI 36 WAS 42
  7. 7 PHI 23 WAS 32
  8. 8 PHI 20 WAS 33
  9. 9 PHI 20 WAS 38
  10. 10 PHI 32 WAS 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 42% of them, Commanders 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+9.6%
Eagles by 9–1612.4%
Eagles by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Commanders by 1–822.4%
Commanders by 9–1615.9%
Commanders by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 8.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 56 yds missed · 56% expected
  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:51 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q3 0:19 The Commanders converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q4 6:59 S. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 151 catchable balls before this +9% WAS PHI: Field goal
4 Q4 6:10 The Eagles converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 3:53 J. Elliott made 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 31 of 48 from 45+ before +13% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q4 3:06 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +33% PHI WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:02 J. Elliott made 40-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +13% WAS PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 0:06 The Commanders’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 14% · Commanders 86%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
5.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 42% · Commanders 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Eagles · Commanders

More from Week 16 2024