luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 22, 2024

Vikings at Seahawks, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Seahawks 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): J. Myers missed a 60-yard field goal, worth 32 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 27
Seattle Seahawks 24

December 22, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +39 Vikings lucky · −39 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 MIN 52 SEA 24
  2. 2 MIN 44 SEA 23
  3. 3 MIN 40 SEA 26
  4. 4 MIN 33 SEA 23
  5. 5 MIN 13 SEA 6
  6. 6 MIN 33 SEA 31
  7. 7 MIN 31 SEA 34
  8. 8 MIN 27 SEA 34
  9. 9 MIN 17 SEA 30
  10. 10 MIN 13 SEA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 61% of them, Seahawks 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+20.2%
Vikings by 9–1618.4%
Vikings by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Seahawks by 1–818.2%
Seahawks by 9–1611.7%
Seahawks by 17+7.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Vikings by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Reichard, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Myers, 60 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 70 yards, Seahawks 11 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:45 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 12:13 Illegal Blindside Block on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 12 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:21 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 5:54 Taunting on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 3:33 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 1:07 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:30 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 20 yards +8% SEA +2.1 pts
Q3 12:12 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 10:37 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 8:58 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +1.3 pts
Q4 14:03 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 10:37 False Start on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 4:21 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 4:03 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Byron Murphy), 15 yards, wiping out the play +17% MIN +2.2 pts
Q4 0:55 Taunting on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.1 pts
Q4 0:55 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIN +0.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:29 W. Reichard made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 8 of 10 from 45+ before +9% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q3 1:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% SEA SEA: Punt
3 Q4 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 2708 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:08 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +20% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:03 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Byron Murphy), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 429 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 J. Myers missed a 60-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 43 of 59 from 45+ before +32% MIN SEA: Turnover
8 Q4 0:55 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsTaunting on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 420 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% MIN SEA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 47% · Seahawks 53%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
2.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 61% · Seahawks 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Vikings · Seahawks

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