2024 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2024: game by game

The Seahawks went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Broncos	W 26–20	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Patriots	W 23–20	83%	+17
Week 3	vs Dolphins	W 24–3	58%	+42
Week 4	@ Lions	L 29–42	21%	−21
Week 5	vs Giants	L 20–29	81%	−81
Week 6	vs 49ers	L 24–36	2%	−2
Week 7	@ Falcons	W 34–14	38%	+62
Week 8	vs Bills	L 10–31	4%	−4
Week 9	vs Rams	L 20–26	62%	−62
Week 11	@ 49ers	W 20–17	35%	+65
Week 12	vs Cardinals	W 16–6	39%	+61
Week 13	@ Jets	W 26–21	77%	+23
Week 14	@ Cardinals	W 30–18	60%	+40
Week 15	vs Packers	L 13–30	4%	−4
Week 16	vs Vikings	L 24–27	39%	−39
Week 17	@ Bears	W 6–3	84%	+16
Week 18	@ Rams	W 30–25	42%	+58

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +1 vs DEN

Wk 2 +17 @ NE

Wk 3 +42 vs MIA

Wk 4 −21 @ DET

Wk 5 −81 vs NYG

Wk 6 −2 vs SF

Wk 7 +62 @ ATL

Wk 8 −4 vs BUF

Wk 9 −62 vs LA

Wk 11 +65 @ SF

Wk 12 +61 vs ARI

Wk 13 +23 @ NYJ

Wk 14 +40 @ ARI

Wk 15 −4 vs GB

Wk 16 −39 vs MIN

Wk 17 +16 @ CHI

Wk 18 +58 @ LA

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+16.2	+0.95
Kicks	+12.0	+0.71
Judgment calls	+12.0	+0.71
3rd & 4th downs	+6.7	+0.39
Drops	−2.7	−0.16
Rest	−2.8	−0.16
Fumble bounces	−7.9	−0.46