luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2024: game by game

The Seahawks went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Broncos W 26–20 99% +1
Week 2 @ Patriots W 23–20 89% +11
Week 3 vs Dolphins W 24–3 36% +64
Week 4 @ Lions L 29–42 11% −11
Week 5 vs Giants L 20–29 67% −67
Week 6 vs 49ers L 24–36 1% −1
Week 7 @ Falcons W 34–14 57% +43
Week 8 vs Bills L 10–31 3% −3
Week 9 vs Rams L 20–26 64% −64
Week 11 @ 49ers W 20–17 39% +61
Week 12 vs Cardinals W 16–6 39% +61
Week 13 @ Jets W 26–21 90% +10
Week 14 @ Cardinals W 30–18 77% +24
Week 15 vs Packers L 13–30 1% −1
Week 16 vs Vikings L 24–27 39% −39
Week 17 @ Bears W 6–3 84% +16
Week 18 @ Rams W 30–25 42% +58

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.32+12.1
Judgment calls+0.14+3.1
3rd & 4th downs+0.05+2.3
Rest−0.08−2.8
Kicks−0.24+12.3
Fumble bounces−0.43−10.6