luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Seahawks at Patriots, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: drops alone were worth 4.9 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:14 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 23
New England Patriots 20

September 15, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +17 Seahawks about even · −17 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 40 NE 12
  2. 2 SEA 24 NE 3
  3. 3 SEA 33 NE 16
  4. 4 SEA 23 NE 10
  5. 5 SEA 30 NE 19
  6. 6 SEA 27 NE 20
  7. 7 SEA 26 NE 21
  8. 8 SEA 16 NE 14
  9. 9 SEA 13 NE 16
  10. 10 SEA 7 NE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 83% of them, Patriots 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+35.3%
Seahawks by 9–1623.2%
Seahawks by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation1.0%
Patriots by 1–811.2%
Patriots by 9–164.5%
Patriots by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds blocked · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 14:15 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 6:52 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedN. Fant dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 91 catchable balls before this +10% NE SEA: Punt
3 Q4 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 41 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +14% NE NE: Missed field goal
4 Q4 2:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q4 1:43 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% NE SEA: Field goal
6 QOT 8:38 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% SEA NE: Punt
7 QOT 7:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jonathan Jones), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3815 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 QOT 6:14 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +17% SEA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sidy Sow (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 70% · Patriots 30%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
0.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 83% · Patriots 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Seahawks · Patriots

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