luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Seahawks at Patriots, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: drops alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 6:14 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 23
New England Patriots 20

September 15, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +11 Seahawks about even · −11 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 34 NE 3
  2. 2 SEA 27 NE 3
  3. 3 SEA 33 NE 12
  4. 4 SEA 17 NE 0
  5. 5 SEA 23 NE 10
  6. 6 SEA 24 NE 14
  7. 7 SEA 13 NE 6
  8. 8 SEA 19 NE 14
  9. 9 SEA 21 NE 18
  10. 10 SEA 16 NE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 89% of them, Patriots 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+49.1%
Seahawks by 9–1621.2%
Seahawks by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–86.6%
Patriots by 9–162.7%
Patriots by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds blocked · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 50 yards, Patriots 3 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 5:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marco Wilson), 12 yards +7% SEA +2.0 pts
Q2 5:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 10 yards +4% NE +1.0 pts
Q2 3:48 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 5 yards +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q2 2:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks, 15 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 11:32 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q3 9:38 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% SEA +2.8 pts
Q4 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% NE +2.3 pts
Q4 0:58 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% NE +0.4 pts
OT 7:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jonathan Jones), 20 yards +15% SEA +1.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:38 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q4 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 41 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +13% NE NE: Missed field goal
3 Q4 3:59 J. Slye had a 48-yard field goal blockedKicks · 74% expected for him, 39 of 58 from 45+ before +9% SEA NE: Punt
4 Q4 2:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q4 1:43 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% NE SEA: Field goal
6 OT 8:38 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +15% SEA NE: Punt
7 OT 7:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jonathan Jones), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3815 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 OT 6:14 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +17% SEA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sidy Sow (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 75% · Patriots 25%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
1.0 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 89% · Patriots 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Seahawks · Patriots

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