luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Chargers at Panthers, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Panthers 26–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.9 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:26 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 26
Carolina Panthers 3

September 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −5

Luck index +2 Chargers about even · −2 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 LAC 39 CAR 3
  2. 2 LAC 31 CAR 3
  3. 3 LAC 37 CAR 13
  4. 4 LAC 30 CAR 10
  5. 5 LAC 27 CAR 9
  6. 6 LAC 25 CAR 10
  7. 7 LAC 19 CAR 6
  8. 8 LAC 23 CAR 13
  9. 9 LAC 13 CAR 6
  10. 10 LAC 13 CAR 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 98% of them, Panthers 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+76.2%
Chargers by 9–1615.5%
Chargers by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation0.6%
Panthers by 1–81.4%
Panthers by 9–160.3%
Panthers by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 3219 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:32 E. Tomlinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 10 catchable balls before this +5% CAR LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:26 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q1 7:49 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CAR LAC: Punt
6 Q1 6:22 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% LAC CAR: Punt
7 Q1 5:06 Fair Catch Interference on the Panthers (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 3006 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +4% LAC LAC: Punt
8 Q2 3:30 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% LAC CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Chargers by 23
Luck in points
6.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 98% · Panthers 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Chargers · Panthers

More from Week 2 2024