luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Colts at Packers, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Colts 16–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.2 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 36 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 10
Green Bay Packers 16

September 15, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +30 Packers lucky · −30 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 IND 31 GB 14
  2. 2 IND 24 GB 16
  3. 3 IND 19 GB 17
  4. 4 IND 21 GB 23
  5. 5 IND 17 GB 21
  6. 6 IND 17 GB 24
  7. 7 IND 13 GB 24
  8. 8 IND 13 GB 28
  9. 9 IND 17 GB 37
  10. 10 IND 10 GB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 30% of them, Packers 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+4.3%
Colts by 9–168.2%
Colts by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.0%
Packers by 1–825.3%
Packers by 9–1621.5%
Packers by 17+21.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Narveson, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Gay, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • B. Narveson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Narveson, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:40 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 3:23 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:36 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% GB GB: Punt
4 Q3 13:55 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% IND IND: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 12:24 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedJ. Taylor dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +8% GB IND: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% GB IND: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:43 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% IND IND: Turnover
8 Q4 0:05 The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +36% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Love (GB QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.4 pts
  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 17% · Packers 83%

Final margin
Packers by 6
Luck in points
6.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 30% · Packers 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Colts · Packers

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