Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024
Colts at Packers, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Colts 16–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.
An off day for the Colts: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 36 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 10 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Packers about even · −20 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 2, Packers win 8.
- 1 IND 19 GB 7
- 2 IND 10 GB 7
- 3 IND 13 GB 15
- 4 IND 20 GB 24
- 5 IND 20 GB 26
- 6 IND 23 GB 33
- 7 IND 14 GB 27
- 8 IND 3 GB 19
- 9 IND 3 GB 24
- 10 IND 3 GB 31
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Colts
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.07 | worse by 0.13 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.10 | worse by 0.04 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.13 | better by 0.01 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.10 | better by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 20% of them, Packers 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Packers by 17+ | 30.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Narveson, 46 yds made · 78% expected
- B. Narveson, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Gay, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- M. Gay, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
- B. Narveson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- B. Narveson, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
Penalties: Colts 3 for 20 yards, Packers 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:53 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% IND +2.0 pts |
| Q1 13:32 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Bo Melton), 10 yards | +3% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:40 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% IND +3.4 pts |
| Q2 12:06 | Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% GB +2.1 pts |
| Q2 11:43 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 15 yards | +3% IND +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:36 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% GB +2.4 pts |
| Q3 3:06 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% IND +1.9 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:49 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.2 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% IND | IND: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:40 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% IND | IND: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 10:36 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% GB | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:55 | The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% IND | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 12:24 | J. Taylor dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 54 catchable balls before this | +9% GB | IND: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 14:16 | M. Gay missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before | +6% GB | IND: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 0:43 | The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +7% IND | IND: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:05 | The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +36% GB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jordan Love (GB QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.4 pts
- Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.5 pts
- Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 39% · Packers 61%
- Final margin
- Packers by 6
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 5.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 20% · Packers 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · 
Colts · 
Packers
More from Week 2 2024
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars CLE 18–13 · replay 16% for the winner
- Chargers at Panthers LAC 26–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Ravens LV 26–23 · replay 15% for the winner
- Saints at Cowboys NO 44–19 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 21–18 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 24–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Seahawks at Patriots SEA 23–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 49% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 20–16 · replay 16% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals ARI 41–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bengals at Chiefs KC 26–25 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Broncos PIT 13–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bears at Texans HOU 19–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Falcons at Eagles ATL 22–21 · replay 33% for the winner