Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024
Giants at Commanders, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Giants 21–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Giants: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:09 left): M. Nabers dropped a catchable pass, worth 31 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 New York Giants | 18 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Commanders about even · −11 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 1, Commanders win 9.
- 1 NYG 19 WAS 14
- 2 NYG 7 WAS 10
- 3 NYG 20 WAS 24
- 4 NYG 14 WAS 20
- 5 NYG 0 WAS 9
- 6 NYG 13 WAS 24
- 7 NYG 14 WAS 28
- 8 NYG 6 WAS 23
- 9 NYG 10 WAS 31
- 10 NYG 3 WAS 29
Your call
Did the Commanders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Giants
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | −0.03 | better by 0.21 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.13 | worse by 0.03 |
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.06 | better by 0.10 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.13 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 11% of them, Commanders 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 27.8% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 28.4% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 32.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 96% expected
- A. Seibert, 45 yds made · 73% expected
- A. Seibert, 26 yds made · 96% expected
- A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 96% expected
- A. Seibert, 29 yds made · 95% expected
- A. Seibert, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Giants 5 for 20 yards, Commanders 10 for 69 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:35 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jason Pinnock), 5 yards | +6% WAS +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:27 | False Start on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders, 15 yards | +3% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:49 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYG +1.7 pts |
| Q3 4:01 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 9 yards | +5% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:32 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Giants, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yards | +9% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:11 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:51 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% WAS +0.8 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:41 | A. Seibert made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 10 of 20 from 45+ before | +11% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 3:47 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 11:21 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +11% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 14:27 | The Giants converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +15% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:35 | The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:21 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% NYG | WAS: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:37 | The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +17% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:09 | The game turned hereM. Nabers dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 18 catchable balls before this | +31% WAS | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 96% · Commanders 4%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 3
- Luck in points
- 11.6 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 11% · Commanders 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · 
Giants · 
Commanders
More from Week 2 2024
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars CLE 18–13 · replay 16% for the winner
- Colts at Packers GB 16–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chargers at Panthers LAC 26–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Ravens LV 26–23 · replay 15% for the winner
- Saints at Cowboys NO 44–19 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 24–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Seahawks at Patriots SEA 23–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 49% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 20–16 · replay 16% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals ARI 41–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bengals at Chiefs KC 26–25 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Broncos PIT 13–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bears at Texans HOU 19–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Falcons at Eagles ATL 22–21 · replay 33% for the winner