luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Giants at Commanders, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 21–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:09 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 31 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

New York Giants 18
Washington Commanders 21

September 15, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −1.5

Luck index +21 Commanders about even · −21 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Commanders win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 23 WAS 13
  2. 2 NYG 20 WAS 17
  3. 3 NYG 12 WAS 14
  4. 4 NYG 3 WAS 7
  5. 5 NYG 8 WAS 14
  6. 6 NYG 0 WAS 9
  7. 7 NYG 10 WAS 21
  8. 8 NYG 6 WAS 20
  9. 9 NYG 10 WAS 27
  10. 10 NYG 7 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 21% of them, Commanders 79%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.6%
Giants by 9–164.5%
Giants by 1–813.5%
Level after regulation4.9%
Commanders by 1–829.7%
Commanders by 9–1624.9%
Commanders by 17+21.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 45 yds made · 72% expected
  • A. Seibert, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +15% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:21 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q4 14:27 The Giants converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +15% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:21 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% NYG WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 4:37 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +19% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:09 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedM. Nabers dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +31% WAS –
8 Q4 0:04 A. Seibert made 30-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +17% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 87% · Commanders 13%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
8.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 21% · Commanders 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Giants · Commanders

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