luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · September 12, 2024–September 16

Week 2 2024: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Jaguars 18–13 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 26–23 @ Ravens 25% 15% Lucky
Buccaneers 20–16 @ Lions 29% 16% Lucky
Saints 44–19 @ Cowboys 32% 89% Deserved
Falcons 22–21 @ Eagles 34% 33% Lucky
Vikings 23–17 vs 49ers 37% 49% Coin flip
Browns 18–13 @ Jaguars 41% 16% Lucky
Packers 16–10 vs Colts 41% 80% Deserved
Bills 31–10 @ Dolphins 43% 80% Deserved
Cardinals 41–10 vs Rams 47% 75% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Raiders W 26–23 @ Ravens 15% +85
2 Browns W 18–13 @ Jaguars 16% +84
3 Buccaneers W 20–16 @ Lions 16% +84
4 Falcons W 22–21 @ Eagles 33% +67
5 Texans W 19–13 vs Bears 48% +52
6 Vikings W 23–17 vs 49ers 49% +51
7 Jets W 24–17 @ Titans 55% +45
8 Chiefs W 26–25 vs Bengals 60% +40
9 Steelers W 13–6 @ Broncos 66% +34
10 Cardinals W 41–10 vs Rams 75% +25
11 Packers W 16–10 vs Colts 80% +20
12 Bills W 31–10 @ Dolphins 80% +20
13 Seahawks W 23–20 @ Patriots 89% +11
14 Commanders W 21–18 vs Giants 89% +11
15 Saints W 44–19 @ Cowboys 89% +11
16 Chargers W 26–3 @ Panthers 98% +2
17 Panthers L 3–26 vs Chargers 2% −2
18 Cowboys L 19–44 vs Saints 11% −11
19 Giants L 18–21 @ Commanders 11% −11
20 Patriots L 20–23 vs Seahawks 11% −11
21 Dolphins L 10–31 vs Bills 20% −20
22 Colts L 10–16 @ Packers 20% −20
23 Rams L 10–41 @ Cardinals 25% −25
24 Broncos L 6–13 vs Steelers 34% −34
25 Bengals L 25–26 @ Chiefs 40% −40
26 Titans L 17–24 vs Jets 45% −45
27 49ers L 17–23 @ Vikings 51% −51
28 Bears L 13–19 @ Texans 52% −52
29 Eagles L 21–22 vs Falcons 67% −67
30 Lions L 16–20 vs Buccaneers 84% −84
31 Jaguars L 13–18 vs Browns 84% −84
32 Ravens L 23–26 vs Raiders 85% −85