luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Browns at Jaguars, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jaguars 18–13, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:50 left): Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 13

September 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +84 Browns very lucky · −84 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Jaguars win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 21 JAX 10
  2. 2 CLE 13 JAX 10
  3. 3 CLE 10 JAX 12
  4. 4 CLE 16 JAX 20
  5. 5 CLE 28 JAX 35
  6. 6 CLE 10 JAX 20
  7. 7 CLE 7 JAX 20
  8. 8 CLE 3 JAX 20
  9. 9 CLE 13 JAX 33
  10. 10 CLE 10 JAX 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 16% of them, Jaguars 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.8%
Browns by 9–164.5%
Browns by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jaguars by 1–826.7%
Jaguars by 9–1623.3%
Jaguars by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 5, without the luck Jaguars by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. Little, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • C. Little, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 13 for 100 yards, Jaguars 6 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:44 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 8:30 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 3:31 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 2 yards +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 14:16 Illegal Shift on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 9:52 Illegal Formation on the Browns (Dustin Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 12:36 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 12:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 17 yards +1% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 12:06 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars, 14 yards +2% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 11:36 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +3% JAX +1.5 pts
Q4 14:24 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Tank Bigsby), 9 yards +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 14:10 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE 0.0 pts
Q4 12:33 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Cameron Mitchell), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 10:06 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Alex Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 7:50 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% CLE +2.1 pts
Q4 6:08 Illegal Shift on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 2:36 Face Mask on the Browns (D'Onta Foreman), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% JAX +1.3 pts
Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 0:47 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Gabriel Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:14 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:02 A. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 180 catchable balls before this +6% JAX CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 6:33 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q4 7:50 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1602 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +12% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q4 7:39 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CLE JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 6:51 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q4 6:08 Illegal Shift on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2258 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% JAX JAX: Safety
8 Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% JAX JAX: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 43% · Jaguars 57%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
6.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Browns 16% · Jaguars 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Browns · Jaguars

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