luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Browns at Jaguars, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the Jaguars 18–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.5 points to the Browns.

The Browns won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:50 left): Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 13

September 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +91 Browns very lucky · −91 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 24 JAX 16
  2. 2 CLE 5 JAX 7
  3. 3 CLE 20 JAX 24
  4. 4 CLE 6 JAX 13
  5. 5 CLE 17 JAX 27
  6. 6 CLE 7 JAX 19
  7. 7 CLE 3 JAX 17
  8. 8 CLE 10 JAX 27
  9. 9 CLE 13 JAX 34
  10. 10 CLE 6 JAX 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Browns won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

33 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.03 better by 0.06
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.01 better by 0.05
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.06 worse by 0.10
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.08 worse by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 9% of them, Jaguars 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.4%
Browns by 9–162.0%
Browns by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation1.7%
Jaguars by 1–817.7%
Jaguars by 9–1623.1%
Jaguars by 17+49.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. Little, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
  • C. Little, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:10 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:02 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 180 catchable balls before this +8% JAX CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 6:28 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q2 3:03 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 7:50 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1602 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +12% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q4 7:39 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% CLE JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 6:08 Illegal Shift on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2258 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% JAX JAX: Safety
8 Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% JAX JAX: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 51% · Jaguars 49%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
5.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 9% · Jaguars 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Browns · Jaguars

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