2024 season · final
Cleveland Browns, 2024: game by game
The Browns went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Every game
How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cowboys | L 17–33 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 2 | @ Jaguars | W 18–13 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 3 | vs Giants | L 15–21 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 4 | @ Raiders | L 16–20 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 5 | @ Commanders | L 13–34 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | @ Eagles | L 16–20 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 7 | vs Bengals | L 14–21 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 8 | vs Ravens | W 29–24 | 1% | +99 |
| Week 9 | vs Chargers | L 10–27 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 11 | @ Saints | L 14–35 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | W 24–19 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 13 | @ Broncos | L 32–41 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 14 | @ Steelers | L 14–27 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 15 | vs Chiefs | L 7–21 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 16 | @ Bengals | L 6–24 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | L 3–20 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 18 | @ Ravens | L 10–35 | 0% | 0 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.14 | −2.0 |
| Kicks | +0.10 | −8.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +4.2 |
| Injuries | +0.10 | +0.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.22 | +2.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.31 | −4.5 |