luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2024 · January 4, 2025

Browns at Ravens, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 35–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 93% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:38 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 22 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Baltimore Ravens 35

January 4, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −19.5

Luck index 0 Ravens about even · 0 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 20 BAL 24
  2. 2 CLE 7 BAL 17
  3. 3 CLE 6 BAL 19
  4. 4 CLE 3 BAL 20
  5. 5 CLE 17 BAL 37
  6. 6 CLE 10 BAL 31
  7. 7 CLE 14 BAL 40
  8. 8 CLE 7 BAL 37
  9. 9 CLE 3 BAL 37
  10. 10 CLE 0 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 0% of them, Ravens 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.0%
Browns by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.1%
Ravens by 1–81.4%
Ravens by 9–165.8%
Ravens by 17+92.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Browns: the final margin was Ravens by 25, without the luck Ravens by 28.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Browns 3 for 20 yards, Ravens 10 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:43 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.9 pts
Q2 8:29 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 5 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 4:52 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 2:46 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 10 yards 0% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 0:10 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 6 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 12:33 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +2.4 pts
Q3 6:48 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 4:39 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q3 1:03 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BAL +2.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 14:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 17 yards +1% CLE +1.5 pts
Q4 7:23 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.7 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:31 Z. Flowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 175 catchable balls before this +5% CLE BAL: Punt
2 Q1 8:38 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +22% BAL CLE: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:18 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% BAL CLE: Punt
4 Q1 2:45 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% CLE BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:43 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1858 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +4% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q2 5:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 3:03 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% CLE BAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 12:33 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CLE CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jameis Winston (CLE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (CLE DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Newsome II (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shelby Harris (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jerome Ford (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 25
Luck in points
3.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 28.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 0% · Ravens 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Browns · Ravens

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