luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 4, 2025

Browns at Ravens, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 35–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.6 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 93% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:38 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 23 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Baltimore Ravens 35

January 4, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −19.5

Luck index +1 Ravens about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 20 BAL 23
  2. 2 CLE 16 BAL 24
  3. 3 CLE 19 BAL 30
  4. 4 CLE 24 BAL 38
  5. 5 CLE 10 BAL 27
  6. 6 CLE 16 BAL 36
  7. 7 CLE 7 BAL 30
  8. 8 CLE 14 BAL 41
  9. 9 CLE 3 BAL 34
  10. 10 CLE 9 BAL 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Ravens 99%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.1%
Browns by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.2%
Ravens by 1–83.2%
Ravens by 9–1612.2%
Ravens by 17+83.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 30.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% BAL CLE: Punt
2 Q1 10:54 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% BAL BAL: Punt
3 Q1 9:31 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedZ. Flowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 175 catchable balls before this +7% CLE BAL: Punt
4 Q1 8:38 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +23% BAL CLE: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 6:18 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% BAL CLE: Punt
6 Q1 2:45 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% CLE BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 3:03 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% CLE BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jameis Winston (CLE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (CLE DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Newsome II (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shelby Harris (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jerome Ford (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 25
Luck in points
5.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 30.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Ravens 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Browns · Ravens

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