luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 4, 2025

Bengals at Steelers, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 19–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): P. Freiermuth dropped a catchable pass, worth 36 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

January 4, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +11 Bengals about even · −11 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 33 PIT 0
  2. 2 CIN 31 PIT 7
  3. 3 CIN 29 PIT 10
  4. 4 CIN 27 PIT 10
  5. 5 CIN 30 PIT 17
  6. 6 CIN 27 PIT 17
  7. 7 CIN 27 PIT 20
  8. 8 CIN 21 PIT 17
  9. 9 CIN 17 PIT 15
  10. 10 CIN 7 PIT 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

33 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.15 worse by 0.13
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.17 +0.16 better by 0.33
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.17 +0.05 worse by 0.23
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.09 better by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 89% of them, Steelers 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+45.5%
Bengals by 9–1622.9%
Bengals by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Steelers by 1–87.4%
Steelers by 9–162.3%
Steelers by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 48 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. York, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. York, 35 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. York, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:37 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% PIT CIN: Punt
2 Q2 1:57 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cory Trice), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 179 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +12% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q2 1:13 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% PIT CIN: Field goal
4 Q2 0:49 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +14% CIN PIT: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:21 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedJ. Chase dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 371 catchable balls before this +10% PIT CIN: Field goal
6 Q4 5:25 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT CIN: Punt
7 Q4 5:14 G. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 209 catchable balls before this +8% CIN PIT: Field goal
8 Q4 0:15 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedP. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 181 catchable balls before this +36% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (PIT CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Brown (CIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan McPherson (CIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 38% · Steelers 62%

Final margin
Bengals by 2
Luck in points
2.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 89% · Steelers 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Bengals · Steelers

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