luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Chargers at Raiders, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 34–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.8 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:13 left): C. Dicker made 20-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 34
Las Vegas Raiders 20

January 5, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +13 Chargers about even · −13 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 44 LV 13
  2. 2 LAC 27 LV 3
  3. 3 LAC 27 LV 7
  4. 4 LAC 33 LV 17
  5. 5 LAC 27 LV 14
  6. 6 LAC 30 LV 20
  7. 7 LAC 35 LV 27
  8. 8 LAC 29 LV 23
  9. 9 LAC 27 LV 24
  10. 10 LAC 6 LV 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 87% of them, Raiders 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+41.6%
Chargers by 9–1625.0%
Chargers by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Raiders by 1–88.4%
Raiders by 9–163.0%
Raiders by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 16.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 51 yds missed · 79% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 49 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Dicker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
2 Q1 5:59 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% LV LAC: Missed field goal
3 Q1 5:08 C. Dicker missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 30 of 34 from 45+ before +10% LV LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 10:15 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 Q2 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% LV LV: Punt
6 Q2 0:44 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LAC LV: End of half
7 Q3 9:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 85 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q3 7:13 C. Dicker made 20-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +17% LV LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 99% · Raiders 1%

Final margin
Chargers by 14
Luck in points
2.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 16.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 87% · Raiders 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Chargers · Raiders

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