Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025
Chargers at Raiders, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Raiders 34–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:22 left): Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Chargers about even · −5 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 10, Raiders win 0.
- 1 LAC 37 LV 3
- 2 LAC 27 LV 3
- 3 LAC 34 LV 14
- 4 LAC 33 LV 16
- 5 LAC 23 LV 9
- 6 LAC 34 LV 21
- 7 LAC 27 LV 17
- 8 LAC 31 LV 23
- 9 LAC 27 LV 22
- 10 LAC 23 LV 21
Your call
Did the Chargers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 95% of them, Raiders 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 59.8% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 24.6% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 51 yds missed · 78% expected
- D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 90% expected
- C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Dicker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Dicker, 49 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Dicker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Chargers 7 for 40 yards, Raiders 3 for 28 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 10 yards | +5% LAC +2.4 pts |
| Q2 14:31 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.2 pts |
| Q2 8:48 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Jonah Laulu), 5 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +13% LV +4.1 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:01 | Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 13 yards | +6% LAC +2.6 pts |
| Q3 6:21 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 5 yards | +1% LV +0.1 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | False Start on the Chargers (Scott Matlock), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:41 | Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LV +1.0 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:27 | The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 575 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +5% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 5:08 | C. Dicker missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 30 of 34 from 45+ before | +10% LV | LAC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 6:22 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +15% LV | LV: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:48 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:44 | The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +6% LAC | LV: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 9:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 85 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +6% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 5:07 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% LV | LV: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Jordan Meredith (LV G), out · 0.3 pts
- Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out · 1.0 pts
- Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 100% · Raiders 0%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 14
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 16.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 95% · Raiders 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · 
Chargers · 
Raiders
More from Week 18 2024
- Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 19–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 23–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 44–38 · replay 11% for the winner
- Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 · replay 1% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 23–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 27–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys WAS 23–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 32–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 30–25 · replay 42% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals ARI 47–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 31–9 · replay 93% for the winner