luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Commanders at Cowboys, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Cowboys 23–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:41 left): Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Dallas Cowboys 19

January 5, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −7

Luck index +24 Commanders about even · −24 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 WAS 48 DAL 22
  2. 2 WAS 33 DAL 15
  3. 3 WAS 27 DAL 13
  4. 4 WAS 28 DAL 17
  5. 5 WAS 22 DAL 13
  6. 6 WAS 28 DAL 22
  7. 7 WAS 35 DAL 31
  8. 8 WAS 24 DAL 23
  9. 9 WAS 27 DAL 30
  10. 10 WAS 21 DAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 76% of them, Cowboys 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+24.4%
Commanders by 9–1622.3%
Commanders by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation4.3%
Cowboys by 1–813.8%
Cowboys by 9–166.7%
Cowboys by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Commanders by 4, without the luck Commanders by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 36 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 5 for 55 yards, Cowboys 11 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys, 8 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 11:47 False Start on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 10:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +2.0 pts
Q1 6:49 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards +3% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 4:59 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 12:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 15 yards +3% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 12:41 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q2 9:13 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 10:40 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards +5% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 9:07 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 8:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 20 yards +12% DAL +2.1 pts
Q4 7:02 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 3:25 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 2:41 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +16% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 1:42 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.7 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:46 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 0:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% WAS DAL: Field goal
3 Q3 5:36 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:49 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q4 8:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 2959 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:41 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 4305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:46 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% DAL WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:33 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Butler (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (DAL T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (WAS C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quan Martin (WAS FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 90% · Cowboys 10%

Final margin
Commanders by 4
Luck in points
1.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 76% · Cowboys 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Commanders · Cowboys

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