Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025
Texans at Titans, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Titans 23–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Titans: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:00 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Houston Texans | 23 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Texans about even · −14 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 9, Titans win 1.
- 1 HOU 34 TEN 3
- 2 HOU 33 TEN 10
- 3 HOU 19 TEN 0
- 4 HOU 26 TEN 10
- 5 HOU 29 TEN 17
- 6 HOU 30 TEN 21
- 7 HOU 28 TEN 21
- 8 HOU 16 TEN 13
- 9 HOU 24 TEN 22
- 10 HOU 17 TEN 23
Your call
Did the Texans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.04 | better by 0.19 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.07 | better by 0.17 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.03 | worse by 0.13 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.09 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 86% of them, Titans 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 38.2% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 25.9% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Titans by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Wright, 35 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Wright, 38 yds made · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Texans 6 for 48 yards, Titans 7 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:16 | Delay of Game on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:30 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:55 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:51 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 8 yards | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 15 yards | +3% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:48 | False Start on the Texans (Dameon Pierce), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:36 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Titans, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 35 yards | +7% HOU +3.1 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Daryl Worley), 10 yards | +2% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 14:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans, 15 yards | +2% TEN +1.4 pts |
Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:50 | The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 0:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 35 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2856 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +7% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:21 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% TEN | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 7:33 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% HOU | TEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 3:55 | The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% HOU | HOU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 1:22 | The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +5% TEN | HOU: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +7% TEN | TEN: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:00 | The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams | +20% HOU | TEN: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyler Boyd (TEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Nick Folk (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
- Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
- Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Denico Autry (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Christian Harris (HOU LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 94% · Titans 6%
- Final margin
- Texans by 9
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 86% · Titans 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · 
Texans · 
Titans
More from Week 18 2024
- Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 19–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 23–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 44–38 · replay 11% for the winner
- Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 · replay 1% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 27–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys WAS 23–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 34–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 32–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 30–25 · replay 42% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals ARI 47–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 31–9 · replay 93% for the winner