luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Texans at Titans, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 23–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:00 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Tennessee Titans 14

January 5, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +24 Texans about even · −24 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 27 TEN 0
  2. 2 HOU 28 TEN 7
  3. 3 HOU 26 TEN 10
  4. 4 HOU 20 TEN 7
  5. 5 HOU 17 TEN 6
  6. 6 HOU 16 TEN 9
  7. 7 HOU 19 TEN 14
  8. 8 HOU 29 TEN 27
  9. 9 HOU 23 TEN 27
  10. 10 HOU 7 TEN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 76% of them, Titans 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+25.2%
Texans by 9–1621.7%
Texans by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation4.3%
Titans by 1–813.9%
Titans by 9–167.0%
Titans by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 7.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Wright, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:43 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:50 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q2 0:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 35 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2856 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 7:33 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% HOU TEN: Field goal
5 Q3 3:55 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 1:22 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% TEN HOU: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 14:00 The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +20% HOU TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Boyd (TEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Folk (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Denico Autry (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 86% · Titans 14%

Final margin
Texans by 9
Luck in points
1.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 76% · Titans 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Texans · Titans

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