Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025
Vikings at Lions, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Vikings 31–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Vikings: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:06 left): the Vikings were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 9 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Lions about even · −7 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Lions win 9.
- 1 MIN 23 DET 17
- 2 MIN 19 DET 21
- 3 MIN 27 DET 33
- 4 MIN 17 DET 27
- 5 MIN 10 DET 23
- 6 MIN 20 DET 36
- 7 MIN 16 DET 35
- 8 MIN 10 DET 33
- 9 MIN 10 DET 37
- 10 MIN 13 DET 49
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Vikings
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.25 | +0.14 | worse by 0.39 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.05 | worse by 0.14 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.20 | worse by 0.01 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.25 | +0.10 | better by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 7% of them, Lions 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Lions by 17+ | 56.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Bates, 48 yds made · 78% expected
- W. Reichard, 51 yds made · 73% expected
- W. Reichard, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: Vikings 6 for 30 yards, Lions 8 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:34 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:41 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +10% MIN +2.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Pat O'Connor), 5 yards | +2% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Vikings (Will Reichard), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET 0.0 pts |
| Q3 14:34 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards | +6% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:51 | Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Sam Darnold), 13 yards | +5% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:20 | False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 11:57 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards | +1% MIN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:43 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +2.8 pts |
| Q4 4:35 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards | 0% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:13 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:09 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brock Wright), 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIN +2.2 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:41 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +10% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:25 | The Lions converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +10% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:03 | The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +8% MIN | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 3:42 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +8% MIN | DET: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:14 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 12:06 | The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +16% DET | MIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 10:04 | J. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 341 catchable balls before this | +11% DET | MIN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 2:33 | The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +7% DET | DET: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Carlton Davis (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 0% · Lions 100%
- Final margin
- Lions by 22
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 7% · Lions 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · 
Vikings · 
Lions
More from Week 18 2024
- Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 19–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 23–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 44–38 · replay 11% for the winner
- Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 · replay 1% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 23–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 27–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys WAS 23–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 34–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 32–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 30–25 · replay 42% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals ARI 47–24 · replay 91% for the winner