luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Panthers at Falcons, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 44–38, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final (OT)

Carolina Panthers 44
Atlanta Falcons 38

January 5, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7.5

Luck index +89 Panthers very lucky · −89 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 47 ATL 40
  2. 2 CAR 34 ATL 36
  3. 3 CAR 30 ATL 35
  4. 4 CAR 16 ATL 23
  5. 5 CAR 12 ATL 23
  6. 6 CAR 17 ATL 31
  7. 7 CAR 23 ATL 40
  8. 8 CAR 24 ATL 44
  9. 9 CAR 21 ATL 45
  10. 10 CAR 3 ATL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 11% of them, Falcons 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.8%
Panthers by 9–162.8%
Panthers by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Falcons by 1–818.1%
Falcons by 9–1622.9%
Falcons by 17+47.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 6, without the luck Falcons by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 2 for 30 yards, Falcons 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 5:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards +5% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 5:27 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Falcons (Bradley Pinion), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q2 0:59 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 0:08 Taunting on the Falcons (Drake London), 15 yards +3% CAR +1.3 pts
Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yards +11% CAR +1.6 pts
Q4 10:47 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 10:08 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% CAR +1.2 pts
Q4 6:20 Face Mask on the Panthers (David Moore), 15 yards +8% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +23% CAR +0.9 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:13 The Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +8% CAR ATL: Missed field goal
3 Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2633 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:29 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:55 The Falcons converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +17% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:20 Face Mask on the Panthers (David Moore), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1985 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +23% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 OT 6:27 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darnell Mooney (ATL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 14% · Falcons 86%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
10.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 11% · Falcons 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Panthers · Falcons

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