luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Panthers at Falcons, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers stole one. They beat the Falcons 44–38, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 6.9 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:55 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 20, worth 24 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final (OT)

Carolina Panthers 44
Atlanta Falcons 38

January 5, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7.5

Luck index +95 Panthers very lucky · −95 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 26 ATL 20
  2. 2 CAR 17 ATL 20
  3. 3 CAR 24 ATL 30
  4. 4 CAR 23 ATL 32
  5. 5 CAR 29 ATL 41
  6. 6 CAR 24 ATL 40
  7. 7 CAR 26 ATL 46
  8. 8 CAR 20 ATL 44
  9. 9 CAR 13 ATL 41
  10. 10 CAR 13 ATL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 5% of them, Falcons 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.2%
Panthers by 9–160.7%
Panthers by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Falcons by 1–810.4%
Falcons by 9–1622.2%
Falcons by 17+62.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 4.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:53 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q2 0:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:47 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +16% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2633 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:55 The Falcons converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +24% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:06 The Panthers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +13% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:09 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +18% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +23% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darnell Mooney (ATL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 16% · Falcons 84%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
10.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 5% · Falcons 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Panthers · Falcons

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