2024 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2024: game by game

The Panthers went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 2.3: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Saints	L 10–47	1%	−1
Week 2	vs Chargers	L 3–26	2%	−2
Week 3	@ Raiders	W 36–22	49%	+51
Week 4	vs Bengals	L 24–34	22%	−22
Week 5	@ Bears	L 10–36	4%	−4
Week 6	vs Falcons	L 20–38	3%	−3
Week 7	@ Commanders	L 7–40	2%	−2
Week 8	@ Broncos	L 14–28	37%	−37
Week 9	vs Saints	W 23–22	23%	+77
Week 10	vs Giants	W 20–17	15%	+85
Week 12	vs Chiefs	L 27–30	8%	−8
Week 13	vs Buccaneers	L 23–26	22%	−22
Week 14	@ Eagles	L 16–22	32%	−32
Week 15	vs Cowboys	L 14–30	19%	−19
Week 16	vs Cardinals	W 36–30	26%	+74
Week 17	@ Buccaneers	L 14–48	0%	0
Week 18	@ Falcons	W 44–38	5%	+95

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −1 @ NO

Wk 2 −2 vs LAC

Wk 3 +51 @ LV

Wk 4 −22 vs CIN

Wk 5 −4 @ CHI

Wk 6 −3 vs ATL

Wk 7 −2 @ WAS

Wk 8 −37 @ DEN

Wk 9 +77 vs NO

Wk 10 +85 vs NYG

Wk 12 −8 vs KC

Wk 13 −22 vs TB

Wk 14 −32 @ PHI

Wk 15 −19 vs DAL

Wk 16 +74 vs ARI

Wk 17 0 @ TB

Wk 18 +95 @ ATL

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+19.8	+1.16
Fumble bounces	+4.7	+0.28
Rest	+0.6	+0.03
Drops	−5.3	−0.31
Injuries	−7.8	−0.46
Kicks	−11.2	−0.66
3rd & 4th downs	−14.9	−0.88