2024 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2024: game by game

The Panthers went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck added 2.1: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Saints	L 10–47	1%	−1
Week 2	vs Chargers	L 3–26	2%	−2
Week 3	@ Raiders	W 36–22	68%	+32
Week 4	vs Bengals	L 24–34	22%	−22
Week 5	@ Bears	L 10–36	3%	−3
Week 6	vs Falcons	L 20–38	3%	−3
Week 7	@ Commanders	L 7–40	1%	−1
Week 8	@ Broncos	L 14–28	21%	−21
Week 9	vs Saints	W 23–22	11%	+89
Week 10	vs Giants	W 20–17	24%	+76
Week 12	vs Chiefs	L 27–30	5%	−5
Week 13	vs Buccaneers	L 23–26	45%	−45
Week 14	@ Eagles	L 16–22	21%	−21
Week 15	vs Cowboys	L 14–30	11%	−11
Week 16	vs Cardinals	W 36–30	40%	+60
Week 17	@ Buccaneers	L 14–48	0%	0
Week 18	@ Falcons	W 44–38	11%	+89

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −1 @ NO

Wk 2 −2 vs LAC

Wk 3 +32 @ LV

Wk 4 −22 vs CIN

Wk 5 −3 @ CHI

Wk 6 −3 vs ATL

Wk 7 −1 @ WAS

Wk 8 −21 @ DEN

Wk 9 +89 vs NO

Wk 10 +76 vs NYG

Wk 12 −5 vs KC

Wk 13 −45 vs TB

Wk 14 −21 @ PHI

Wk 15 −11 vs DAL

Wk 16 +60 vs ARI

Wk 17 0 @ TB

Wk 18 +89 @ ATL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.32	+10.8
Injuries	−0.06	−5.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.12	−14.8
Fumble bounces	−0.13	+6.2
Kicks	−0.36	−12.1
Drops	−0.55	−3.4