luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Falcons at Panthers, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:24 left): Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 38
Carolina Panthers 20

October 13, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −6

Luck index +3 Falcons about even · −3 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 ATL 42 CAR 7
  2. 2 ATL 32 CAR 3
  3. 3 ATL 34 CAR 10
  4. 4 ATL 27 CAR 6
  5. 5 ATL 33 CAR 15
  6. 6 ATL 31 CAR 17
  7. 7 ATL 28 CAR 17
  8. 8 ATL 22 CAR 13
  9. 9 ATL 14 CAR 9
  10. 10 ATL 17 CAR 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 97% of them, Panthers 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+72.8%
Falcons by 9–1616.1%
Falcons by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Panthers by 1–82.4%
Panthers by 9–160.5%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • Y. Koo, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 21 flags in 3893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:07 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:43 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:33 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% ATL ATL: Turnover
5 Q2 12:17 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% CAR ATL: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:55 E. Pineiro made 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q3 3:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 10:53 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ATL CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 18
Luck in points
8.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 97% · Panthers 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Falcons · Panthers

More from Week 6 2024