luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Browns at Eagles, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Browns 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.6 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): J. Elliott had a 57-yard field goal blocked, worth 29 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 16
Philadelphia Eagles 20

October 13, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −8

Luck index +4 Eagles about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 10 PHI 13
  2. 2 CLE 0 PHI 6
  3. 3 CLE 14 PHI 23
  4. 4 CLE 13 PHI 24
  5. 5 CLE 6 PHI 20
  6. 6 CLE 3 PHI 19
  7. 7 CLE 10 PHI 27
  8. 8 CLE 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 CLE 6 PHI 31
  10. 10 CLE 0 PHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, Eagles 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.1%
Browns by 9–160.5%
Browns by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Eagles by 1–88.9%
Eagles by 9–1623.3%
Eagles by 17+63.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 3.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Elliott, 57 yds blocked · 59% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:24 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2984 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 4:18 The Browns converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q2 0:25 J. Elliott had a 57-yard field goal blockedKicks · 59% expected for him, 29 of 41 from 45+ before +29% CLE PHI: End of half
5 Q3 1:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 11:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:53 D. Hopkins made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 35 of 49 from 45+ before +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 5:16 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 50% · Eagles 50%

Final margin
Eagles by 4
Luck in points
7.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · Eagles 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Browns · Eagles

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