luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Jaguars vs Bears, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Jaguars 35–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Jaguars.

An off day for the Jaguars: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:23 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Chicago Bears 35

October 13, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1.5

Luck index +7 Bears about even · −7 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Bears win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 24 CHI 17
  2. 2 JAX 21 CHI 23
  3. 3 JAX 13 CHI 19
  4. 4 JAX 13 CHI 22
  5. 5 JAX 19 CHI 30
  6. 6 JAX 13 CHI 27
  7. 7 JAX 0 CHI 17
  8. 8 JAX 6 CHI 27
  9. 9 JAX 3 CHI 28
  10. 10 JAX 7 CHI 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

41 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.07 better by 0.11
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.37 +0.11 worse by 0.26
Bears offenseEPA per play gained +0.37 +0.04 better by 0.33
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.06 worse by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 7% of them, Bears 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.3%
Jaguars by 9–161.7%
Jaguars by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation1.5%
Bears by 1–816.0%
Bears by 9–1622.5%
Bears by 17+53.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 15.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds blocked · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% JAX CHI: Punt
2 Q1 11:35 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 6:31 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q2 12:01 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:15 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% CHI CHI: Turnover
6 Q2 5:23 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% JAX CHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:40 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:07 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrique Stevenson (CHI CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 1% · Bears 99%

Final margin
Bears by 19
Luck in points
3.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 7% · Bears 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Jaguars · Bears

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