luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · October 10, 2024–October 14

Week 6 2024: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 6 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Chargers won 23–16 and take 55% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Colts 20–17 @ Titans 43% 94% Deserved
Bears 35–16 vs Jaguars 46% 93% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chargers W 23–16 @ Broncos 55% +45
2 Bills W 23–20 @ Jets 65% +35
3 Bengals W 17–7 @ Giants 67% +33
4 Steelers W 32–13 @ Raiders 75% +25
5 Ravens W 30–23 vs Commanders 79% +21
6 Packers W 34–13 vs Cardinals 82% +18
7 Bears W 35–16 vs Jaguars 93% +8
8 Buccaneers W 51–27 @ Saints 93% +7
9 Colts W 20–17 @ Titans 94% +6
10 Falcons W 38–20 @ Panthers 97% +3
11 Eagles W 20–16 vs Browns 98% +2
12 Texans W 41–21 @ Patriots 99% +1
13 49ers W 36–24 @ Seahawks 99% +1
14 Lions W 47–9 @ Cowboys 100% 0
15 Cowboys L 9–47 vs Lions 0% 0
16 Seahawks L 24–36 vs 49ers 1% −1
17 Patriots L 21–41 vs Texans 1% −1
18 Browns L 16–20 @ Eagles 2% −2
19 Panthers L 20–38 vs Falcons 3% −3
20 Titans L 17–20 vs Colts 6% −6
21 Saints L 27–51 vs Buccaneers 7% −7
22 Jaguars L 16–35 @ Bears 7% −8
23 Cardinals L 13–34 @ Packers 18% −18
24 Commanders L 23–30 @ Ravens 21% −21
25 Raiders L 13–32 vs Steelers 25% −25
26 Giants L 7–17 vs Bengals 33% −33
27 Jets L 20–23 vs Bills 35% −35
28 Broncos L 16–23 vs Chargers 45% −45