luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · October 3, 2024–October 7

Week 5 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Colts 37–34 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 24–23 @ 49ers 30% 60% Coin flip
Giants 29–20 @ Seahawks 30% 33% Lucky
Cowboys 20–17 @ Steelers 43% 83% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 37–34 vs Colts 14% +86
2 Dolphins W 15–10 @ Patriots 16% +84
3 Giants W 29–20 @ Seahawks 33% +67
4 Broncos W 34–18 vs Raiders 45% +55
5 Falcons W 36–30 vs Buccaneers 49% +51
6 Ravens W 41–38 @ Bengals 53% +47
7 Cardinals W 24–23 @ 49ers 60% +41
8 Packers W 24–19 @ Rams 69% +31
9 Chiefs W 26–13 vs Saints 76% +24
10 Texans W 23–20 vs Bills 82% +18
11 Cowboys W 20–17 @ Steelers 83% +17
12 Vikings W 23–17 vs Jets 90% +10
13 Bears W 36–10 vs Panthers 97% +3
14 Commanders W 34–13 vs Browns 99% +1
15 Browns L 13–34 @ Commanders 1% −1
16 Panthers L 10–36 @ Bears 3% −3
17 Jets L 17–23 @ Vikings 10% −10
18 Steelers L 17–20 vs Cowboys 17% −17
19 Bills L 20–23 @ Texans 18% −18
20 Saints L 13–26 @ Chiefs 24% −24
21 Rams L 19–24 vs Packers 31% −31
22 49ers L 23–24 vs Cardinals 41% −41
23 Bengals L 38–41 vs Ravens 47% −47
24 Buccaneers L 30–36 @ Falcons 51% −51
25 Raiders L 18–34 @ Broncos 55% −55
26 Seahawks L 20–29 vs Giants 67% −67
27 Patriots L 10–15 vs Dolphins 84% −84
28 Colts L 34–37 @ Jaguars 86% −86