luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Jets vs Vikings, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Jets 23–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:30 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 26 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Jets 17
Minnesota Vikings 23

October 6, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +10 Vikings about even · −10 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 16 MIN 10
  2. 2 NYJ 17 MIN 19
  3. 3 NYJ 28 MIN 33
  4. 4 NYJ 20 MIN 29
  5. 5 NYJ 9 MIN 21
  6. 6 NYJ 6 MIN 21
  7. 7 NYJ 6 MIN 24
  8. 8 NYJ 3 MIN 25
  9. 9 NYJ 10 MIN 36
  10. 10 NYJ 0 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.4%
Jets by 9–161.9%
Jets by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation0.9%
Vikings by 1–816.4%
Vikings by 9–1621.8%
Vikings by 17+52.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Vikings by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • W. Reichard, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 76 yards, Vikings 11 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 13:43 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 6 yards +4% MIN +2.1 pts
Q2 7:59 Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% NYJ +3.4 pts
Q2 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 18 yards +2% MIN +1.3 pts
Q2 4:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 11 yards +2% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 4:49 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 4:06 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 2 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 2:08 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yards 0% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 1:39 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q3 13:29 Fair Catch Interference on the Vikings (Akayleb Evans), 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 10:13 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q3 6:07 Roughing the Kicker on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yards +6% NYJ +3.5 pts
Q3 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 24 yards +4% MIN +2.1 pts
Q4 10:52 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 9:54 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q4 7:32 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 1 yard +5% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 5:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:22 The Vikings fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ MIN: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 2:30 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +26% MIN NYJ: Turnover
3 Q2 7:59 Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 3789 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q3 6:07 Roughing the Kicker on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1071 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 9:54 The Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% NYJ MIN: Field goal
6 Q4 8:17 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:05 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 0:49 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +12% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Morgan Moses (NYJ T), out · 0.9 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 15% · Vikings 85%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
0.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Jets · Vikings

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